The Russian real estate market is poised for notable shifts as the preferential mortgage program ends on July 1, but experts do not anticipate a sharp drop in apartment prices. This view comes from Konstantin Aprelev, founder and honorary member of the Russian Association of Realtors, who shared thoughts with Pravda.Ru.
According to Aprelev, concessional mortgages comprise roughly 40 percent of all apartment purchases in the segment of housing under construction. With that share vanishing, he expects demand for new builds to ease and trading activity to slow. To compensate, developers may need to rethink how they work with banks and broaden the set of incentives available to buyers.
One of the most plausible moves, he suggested, would be to offer homes with installment plans alongside rent, possibly without interest or with minimal charges. Another option could be to replicate a strategy used years ago when developers subsidized mortgage interest themselves without lowering the listed price of homes. Such approaches aim to sustain buyer interest even as financing terms tighten.
Irina Radchenko, president of the International Mortgage and Real Estate Academy, has noted that banks will likely struggle to keep financing costs around the current eight percent after the concessional program ends, even if developers attempt to cover some of the lost revenue. The issue centers on whether lenders can absorb the gap without passing it entirely to buyers.
For residents and investors in Russia, these changes provoke questions about the best path to acquiring housing without a large upfront payment and while managing monthly costs. The market will still offer options, but buyers will need to weigh credit terms, willingness of developers to subsidize bills, and the overall affordability of new homes in a shifting financing landscape.
In practice, the end of the concessional program may slow down new construction activity and reduce overall transaction volume, especially in highly leveraged projects. Still, the experience of past cycles shows that developers can adapt quickly by aligning products with evolving lending conditions and by introducing flexible payment schemes that keep homes within reach for a broader audience. This resilience is an important factor for buyers who monitor price trends but also seek predictable, long term affordability.
As the market adjusts, buyers outside Russia, including those in North America watching global real estate trends, should consider how financing structures influence demand for new developments in different regions. The dynamics within Russia underscore the broader principle that mortgage terms can act as a catalyst or a constraint on housing markets, depending on how lenders, builders, and policymakers coordinate their actions.
Ultimately, the period following the end of the preferential program will test both the strength of the construction sector and the ability of buyers to secure favorable terms. Observers expect the market to rebalance gradually, with developers offering competitive financing models and buyers evaluating options that blend price, payment flexibility, and long term cost of ownership. The real estate landscape in Russia is unlikely to stagnate; it is more likely to evolve with new strategies that aim to sustain momentum even as government support changes hands.
Market participants will continue to monitor bank rate trajectories, the effectiveness of alternative buyer incentives, and the overall affordability picture as the immediate post program period unfolds. The dialogue between developers, banks, and buyers will shape the availability of housing and the pace of transactions in the months ahead.