The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has decided to bar borrowers who carry consumer loans from taking out new mortgages. This move would touch a large slice of Russia’s active population, a prospect analysts say could reach about 40 million people. The estimate comes from Vladimir Shchekin, founder of the Rodina development group, who spoke with socialbites.ca about the potential impact.
Shchekin breaks down the current lending landscape. He notes that roughly 21 million Russians carry at least one loan, about 10 million have two loans, and another 11.2 million owe three or more loans. With these figures, the ban on mortgage access for those with consumer debt could ripple through a substantial portion of prospective homebuyers and the housing market at large.
He argues that higher down payments on home loans will dampen demand. Across the lending ecosystem, more than half of mortgage borrowers obtained financing with a down payment under 20 percent, a threshold that is likely to tighten under the new policy. The result, according to Shchekin, would be a slower path to home ownership for many families, aggravated by inflationary pressures that already squeeze budgets.
In its weekly bulletin, the Bank of Russia confirmed the plan to restrict mortgage issuance for holders of consumer loans. The regulator highlighted that the average number of loans per mortgage holder was about 1.8 in the second quarter of this year, up from 1.6 in the prior year. The bulletin also notes cases where borrowers used a consumer loan to cover part of a mortgage down payment, sometimes as high as 100 thousand rubles. Officials argued for a higher initial payment on new housing loans to bolster lender risk buffers and to curb excessive leverage among households.
Observers see a broader shift underway in the housing-finance landscape. If the policy takes full effect, lenders may tighten underwriting standards and reprice risk more aggressively. This could slow housing activity, especially in segments that rely on small to mid-sized down payments, and could prompt buyers to reassess timelines and savings strategies in a climate of ongoing price volatility and inflation.
Industry analysts caution that the effects will vary by region, by income level, and by the typical structure of household debt. Some households with stronger income profiles or stable employment may still access mortgages through alternate deposits or government-supported programs, while others may postpone purchases or seek refinements in loan products. The policy’s success in stabilizing lender exposure will depend on careful calibration of credit limits, repayment terms, and monthly payment affordability. [Newspapers.Ru]
Meanwhile, market chatter suggests that interest rates on mortgage products could respond to stricter loan-framing rules. A broader discussion is taking shape around how lenders balance demand with risk, and how potential homebuyers navigate the trade-off between faster access to property and more stringent upfront costs. [Newspapers.Ru]
Policy-makers also face the challenge of communicating changes clearly to households and developers alike. The goal is to curb risky borrowing while preserving the prospects for home ownership, urban development, and affordable housing supply. In the current climate, many households will weigh the higher upfront costs against the long-term security and potential appreciation that real estate can offer. [Newspapers.Ru]
Experts emphasize that the Russian market is undergoing a recalibration rather than a sudden collapse. Buyers, financiers, and builders alike can adapt by adjusting savings timelines, exploring government-backed programs, and reassessing project economics. The evolution of mortgage policies will likely unfold in stages, with feedback from lenders and borrowers shaping subsequent adjustments. [Newspapers.Ru]
In sum, the new rule linking consumer loans and mortgage eligibility is set to reframe mortgage demand dynamics across Russia. While some households may accelerate their savings strategies, others could reassess the feasibility of home purchases in the near term. The broader consequence may be a slower but more sustainable path to home ownership as the market absorbs this policy shift, with long-run effects dependent on how lenders calibrate risk and how inflation trends evolve. [Newspapers.Ru]