In the third quarter of 2024, Russia supplied 13.3 billion cubic meters of gas to the European market, edging out the United States in a quarterly comparison of shipments. The figure marks a slight increase from 13.0 bcm in the preceding quarter and a higher level than the 11.5 bcm recorded in the same quarter a year earlier. Industry trackers note that the share of Russian suppliers in European imports rose from 17.2 percent to 19.4 percent during April through June. The trend reflects continuing shifts in European energy flows and the role of Russian gas in European supply strategies.
Meanwhile, United States LNG deliveries to Europe and other markets continued to retreat. Market data show LNG volumes from the United States fell by about a quarter in the most recent quarter and by roughly a third on the year, down to 9.5 bcm. The slowdown underscores the growing competition among major exporters and the changing dynamics of the global LNG market.
In September, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak outlined a forecast for Russia’s LNG exports abroad. He indicated that shipments could reach 35 million tons by the end of 2024, signaling roughly a six percent annual increase. The projection aligns with Russia’s broader push to expand LNG flows beyond traditional European customers and to capture new demand in Asia and other regions.
Novak also highlighted a shift in the geographic distribution of Russian gas supplies, noting that 30-40 percent of European gas deliveries may be redirected to other markets, with China identified as a primary destination. At the same time, volumes carried by the Power of Siberia pipeline were expected to reach a peak level in 2025, reflecting ongoing investments in cross-continental gas infrastructure. These movements are shaping the reference points for European energy security and global gas pricing.
There are reports of discussions at the European level regarding restrictions on LNG imports from Russia. While policy debates continue, industry observers see ongoing efforts to diversify import sources and to integrate alternative suppliers into European gas networks. The evolving policy landscape interacts with market signals, potentially influencing pricing, contracting, and strategic planning for energy users across Canada and the United States.
Beyond quarterly numbers, the larger context involves a realignment of supply channels as natural gas markets adapt to shifting demand patterns. Russia’s strategy appears to balance steady European deliveries with growth opportunities in East Asia, particularly China, where demand for LNG remains robust. The Power of Siberia pipeline stands as a centerpiece in this plan, with capacity expansions and scheduling changes aimed at maximizing flow in 2025 and beyond.
From a North American perspective, the developments in European gas imports and Russian LNG strategies may influence regional pricing, volatility, and supply planning. Importers and traders in Canada and the United States monitor changes in European demand as well as Russian export commitments, seeking to manage risk while securing long-term contracts for reliable energy supply. The interplay among European policy, global gas competition, and regional energy frameworks creates a complex environment for markets on this side of the Atlantic.