Anton Siluanov, head of Russia’s Ministry of Finance, reaffirmed a clear fiscal commitment. The budget must be implemented regardless of what happens outside the country, he stated. In a period of geopolitical tension and volatile commodities, the message signals a priority on steady policy and predictable spending. It aims to preserve credibility and guarantee funding for essential programs, avoiding abrupt adjustments when shocks arise. The approach favors rule based planning that endures beyond short term headlines, supporting stability for households, businesses, and public services. In practice, this means keeping payrolls, social benefits, and strategic investments on track even when oil buyers or lenders worry about sanctions, currencies, or global demand shifts. The stance also reflects a broader objective to maintain investor confidence, reduce financing costs, and prevent sudden fiscal contractions that could ripple through the economy.
The minister emphasized that obligations and government decisions must be fulfilled, regardless of external conditions. This principle guides ministries, agencies and state programs to keep core services funded and investments on track. It implies a governance framework where external events do not derail the budget, and buffers are used in a disciplined manner rather than triggering sudden cuts. The focus is on resilience and reliability, so the public can rely on steady access to services even in uncertain times. The approach also means that policymakers rely on transparent rules and forward planning, providing room for contingencies without alarmist measures. It helps private sector planning by reducing the risk of abrupt policy shifts that would complicate lending, hiring, and capital projects.
The budget rule aims to soften the fluctuations in oil prices in case the situation in the Middle East worsens again or after the presidential elections in the USA. The rule anchors the budget to a baseline for oil revenue to absorb volatility and maintain a predictable fiscal path. When oil prices rise above the baseline, the excess is directed into the National Welfare Fund, strengthening reserves for future downturns. When prices fall below the baseline, the Fund can support current spending, keeping services funded and investment plans intact. This design reduces the transmission of oil market swings into spending decisions, supporting fiscal stability during geopolitical shocks and shifts in global energy demand. It also signals a commitment to longer term resilience in public finance that resonates with international investors and partners watching how Russia manages risk in a volatile energy landscape.
The government is planning a budget with a base oil price of $60 per barrel. If market prices exceed that level, the additional revenue flows to the National Welfare Fund. If prices are lower, resources are drawn from the Fund to stabilize spending. The choice of a conservative baseline reflects prudence, aiming to safeguard fiscal sustainability while preserving room for essential programs. The mechanism gives policymakers a cushion to adjust to changing energy conditions without abrupt cuts, tax changes, or destabilizing surprises for households and businesses.
Non oil and gas revenues currently make up about two thirds of the federal budget. Oil and gas revenues are projected to account for roughly 27 percent of total revenue next year and about 23 percent in 2027. This trend signals a shift toward a broader revenue base, reducing dependence on energy exports. The result affects policy choices across taxation, investment, and public service delivery, with implications for domestic and international observers watching how Russia manages fiscal resilience. Earlier discussions touched on selling nonessential state assets to bolster finances and support ongoing spending plans.