Denis Manturov, who leads Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade, recently suggested that new car sales in the country could rise by about 30 percent this year. This forecast was reported by the business daily Kommersant, which has been closely watching developments in the domestic automotive sector and the broader industrial landscape. The official position highlights a view that, despite uncertain global conditions, Russian production is expanding while imports are being sustained, a combination that researchers and industry watchers see as a potential catalyst for stronger domestic demand and a more robust supply chain in the near term.
In Manturov’s assessment, discussions about this year’s sales trajectory have a degree of calculated caution. He noted that early-year projections for the automotive sector resemble forecasting over coffee grounds, meaning the early numbers are provisional and subject to revision as more data comes in. He did, however, make explicit that volumes would surpass the 2022 figures and emphasized that the path to that result rests on two pillars: increasing manufacturing output and maintaining a steady flow of imports. He added that a precise, data-driven estimate would be refined in the near future, but the ministry’s stance remained that sales would be noticeably higher than the previous year, with the target hovering around a 30 percent gain.
Manturov pointed to a recent period when car prices showed an uptick from March to April of the previous year, driven by shifts in costs across the supply chain. Since then, he observed a stabilization of prices as logistics routes, supplier networks, and component production found new equilibrium. The resilience of domestic supply lines and the ability to secure essential components have contributed to a steadier pricing environment, which is crucial for both manufacturers and buyers who are navigating inflationary pressures and budgeting concerns. This stabilization is framed as a positive signal for the broader market, even as uncertainties on a global scale continue to influence price dynamics.
Confronted with the question of how prices might evolve in the context of ongoing inflation, Manturov explained that downward movement in pricing is constrained by persistent cost pressures at both the global and local levels. He argued that while promotions and discounts can provide temporary relief, the underlying trend for prices is likely to move upward in some degree, reflecting the reality of inflation, currency movements, and the cost of credit. The ministry’s commentary, therefore, suggested that consumers should temper expectations about sharp price drops, while buyers and sellers can look for incremental reductions through favorable financing terms, supply chain efficiencies, and targeted incentives rather than dramatic price swings.
Industry observers and market participants have noted a persistent decline in new passenger car and light commercial vehicle sales in Russia, with a sharp drop recorded in February 2023. The Association of European Businesses in Russia has documented these declines, underscoring the ongoing challenge of aligning demand with production capacity in a way that preserves market stability. The current outlook, shaped by government policy, domestic manufacturing momentum, and evolving import conditions, suggests a market in transition. Stakeholders are watching closely how the interplay of production expansion, logistic improvements, and inflation will shape sales trajectories throughout the year, including the potential that the 30 percent figure could be realized or adjusted as more concrete monthly data becomes available. In this context, the automotive sector remains a focal point for broader discussions about Russia’s industrial capabilities and the domestic demand we can expect in the months ahead.