Russian Mortgage Market Shifts: February Trends, Policy Impacts, and Market Segments

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In February, Russia’s housing market experienced a clear slowdown in mortgage activity, with the number of new loans dipping by 31 percent from January to 7.4 thousand. This downturn was highlighted by a major national newspaper and backed by analysis from Domklik, reflecting a broader shift in borrowing behavior amid tighter lending conditions. The data indicate that both lenders and borrowers grew more prudent as rates remained elevated, influencing the willingness to lock in long-term debt and to take on new commitments. Domklik analysts note that the headline figure captures a market at a crossroads, balancing affordability pressures with the need to secure shelter in a challenging financial climate.

Within the overall mortgage mix, the share allotted to new construction reached its lowest point on record at 14.8 percent. The drop underscores a persistent cautious stance among buyers and lenders alike, as higher borrowing costs and stricter credit criteria constrain demand for new-build projects. This dynamic translates into slower project launches, longer decision times for buyers, and a stronger emphasis on existing inventory. Domklik analysts observe that the shift away from new construction is shaping the structure of demand in urban housing markets while highlighting the sensitivity of developers to the financing environment.

Policy interventions also shaped demand, with the government implementing a single privileged mortgage per person rule toward the end of the previous year. Under the State Support program, the initial payment is set at 30 percent, and the loan cap stands at 6 million rubles across all regions. These measures continue to influence both the aggressiveness of buyers and the risk exposure of lenders, as households weigh upfront costs against the potential long-term benefits of favorable terms. Domklik analysts emphasize that such policies create a measurable impact on the distribution of demand across metropolitan areas, often nudging buyers toward more conservative down payments and extended repayment horizons.

In light of these primary-market constraints, the share of mortgages issued for the secondary market rose to 62.8 percent, marking the highest level since August 2022. Yet the absolute volume of secondary loans reached 31.6 thousand, still below the previous year as higher key rates and tighter lending criteria dampened overall demand. Domklik analysts point out that the secondary market has become a more prominent channel for accessing housing finance, even as it contends with a more stringent price environment and tighter credit filters that curb overall borrowing capacity.

As the construction season approaches, mortgages for individual housing construction accounted for 19.3 percent of the total, roughly 9.7 thousand loans. Experts are noting growing interest in low-rise suburban housing and a trend toward longer-term, customized living spaces that align with changing family needs and preferences. Domklik analysts highlight that borrowers are increasingly prioritizing flexibility and personalization in housing plans, pushing lenders to tailor products that accommodate longer horizons and variable down payment structures while managing risk in a volatile rate environment.

Earlier reporting indicated that Russian buyers faced premium costs on mortgage products, with overpayments approaching four times the price of selected flats. This pattern highlights the financial strain households face amid elevated interest rates and stricter lending standards, underscoring the affordability squeeze in many urban areas. Domklik analysts stress that households are navigating higher monthly payments and the cumulative burden of upfront costs, which influences decision timelines and the pace of home purchase activity. In related discussions, socialbites.ca explored who would be most affected by central bank mortgage restrictions, noting the broader implications for families and first-time buyers while the policy environment continues to reshape access to homeownership across the country. Domklik analysts.

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