Average export prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein) hovered around $275 per tonne (FOB Novorossiysk), marking a level where sales could stall if exporters do not see sufficient profit. This was reported by Interfax, citing Eduard Zernin, the chairman of the Grain Exporters’ Association, who emphasizes the price sensitivity of the market amid ongoing adjustments in global supply chains.
The Grain Exporters’ Association indicates that current export prices for wheat have reached what they consider the minimum reasonable value. According to the organization, selling wheat below this threshold offers little economic sense for exporters, given rising production costs and sustained demand from major international buyers.
Zernin also commented on the currency market dynamics, noting that despite speculative activities aimed at depressing prices through paper contracts, the likelihood of further price declines appears limited. He points to structural factors in the physical grain market that support price stability, including the cost pressures faced by producers and persistent global demand.
According to the association, there are no clear preconditions for substantial price reductions in the physical grain market. The argument rests on rising producer costs and the interest of global purchasers in steady supply, especially from the world’s largest buyers who prioritize food security and the development of processing industries over short-term market moves.
In a separate market snapshot, Bloomberg reported that the volume of Russian wheat supply in January and February of 2023 nearly doubled versus the same period in the previous year, reaching about 6.1 million tonnes. This uptick underscores a broader pattern of rising export activity and the strategic importance of Russian wheat in meeting international demand, even as price levels press against profitability thresholds for exporters. Analysts suggest that the double move in supply reflects both seasonal dynamics and ongoing negotiations with buyers seeking dependable delivery windows. Market observers also note that exporters are balancing the lure of higher volumes with the need to sustain price levels that ensure long-term competitiveness and the health of the domestic agricultural sector. Overall, the current market mood appears cautiously optimistic about continued demand, while price signals remain tightly linked to production costs, currency fluctuations, and the evolving geopolitical context that influences global grain flows, trade terms, and logistical considerations across major ports and shipping lanes.