Since the start of the new agricultural season, which begins on July 1 this year, Russia is projected to hold about one-fifth of the global wheat export market. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s share is expected to fall by around 5 percent by the end of February 2022 compared with the period before the military conflict, based on data cited by Bloomberg and sourced from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports.
Several factors will determine Russia’s growing presence in the world agricultural trade. A key element is the expected large grain harvest in the North Caucasus and other fertile regions of the country, which could sustain higher export volumes. The analysis also notes that Ukraine may see a diminished export footprint due to ongoing logistical challenges and disrupted supply chains stemming from the conflict.
“As another robust harvest unfolds on fertile lands such as the North Caucasus, Russia is set to provide roughly one of every five wheat exports in the new season beginning July 1,” the report states. “In contrast, Ukraine’s share is forecast to decline toward about five percent from pre-invasion levels because of long-term damage to production areas affected by mines and the broader supply disruption.” [Citation: Bloomberg citing USDA data]
On June 27, a report published by Agroexport, the state budgetary institution, noted that by the end of 2022 Russia ranked 17th among the world’s largest exporters of food and agricultural raw materials. The data suggests Russia’s global market share hovered around 2.1 percent. [Citation: Agroexport release]
In Eastern Europe, farmers have faced mounting concerns about the impact of grain flows from Ukraine on regional markets and the broader agricultural sector. Observers highlight how supply chain pressures and export bottlenecks influence price formation, regional stability, and the capacity of neighboring economies to adapt to shifting trade patterns in a high-stakes market. [Citation: USDA and Bloomberg synthesis]
The evolving dynamic underscores how geopolitical events can reshape the structure of global food trade. Stakeholders in Canada, the United States, and other wheat-importing regions are watching indicators such as harvest yields, logistics efficiency, and policy responses that affect pricing, availability, and reliability of supply. Analysts emphasize the importance of diversified sourcing strategies and resilient logistics to mitigate potential disruptions and maintain steady access to essential commodities in North America and beyond. [Citation: USDA and regional market analyses]
Overall, the year ahead is expected to bring continued emphasis on large-scale harvests in Russia, ongoing production challenges in Ukraine, and the broader consequences for international food security and trade routes. Market participants will likely pay close attention to seasonal harvest outcomes, transport costs, and policy developments that could alter export shares and regional supply balances in the coming months. [Citation: International trade reviews]