The Bank of Russia has outlined a plan to impose quantitative limits on mortgage lending, with the new rules set to take effect on July 1 of the coming year. The regulator communicated the proposal through official channels, signaling a shift in how long term housing credit will be issued.
The central bank intends to cap loans with maturities beyond thirty years, noting that the share of these long-term mortgages rose from 10% to 20% over the year. At the same time, financing for homes under construction could face tighter down payment requirements, as the gap between primary market prices and those in the secondary market continues to show up in asking prices. The aim is to curb speculative demand and stabilize affordability for new developments, while keeping risk controls aligned with evolving market conditions.
Industry observers note a sharp pullback in demand for housing credit following policy changes that ended privileged lending terms. In a recent assessment, demand for housing loans fell by more than half within a three month period, and inquiries for homes under construction dropped markedly. The retreat reflects how changes in credit policy and affordability pressures translate into lower appetite for large purchases financed by debt.
Financial authorities have warned that the odds of another rate increase remain elevated, underscoring ongoing concerns about inflation, debt service costs, and price stability. Markets and borrowers alike must prepare for tighter financing conditions as policy stances evolve.
In late autumn of 2024 the central bank raised the key rate to 21 percent, marking a third tightening move in a 12 month period and surpassing levels seen in more than two decades. The 21 percent threshold echoes past peaks, with a historical high of 21 percent notched back in 2002. Analysts note that higher policy rates quickly influence borrowing costs across the economy, including consumer loans, mortgages, and deposits. Industry expectations point to continued tightening in lending conditions. Projections from market analysts suggest deposit rates could move into the mid twenties by year end, while borrowing costs for consumers could rise into the low to mid thirties for unsecured loans and remain elevated for mortgages. The momentum reflects the persistent pressure on inflation and the central bank’s resolve to cool demand across housing and consumption. There are reports that government measures affecting housing include adjustments to mortgage payments for extended families in the Far East as part of broader policy actions, illustrating how policy design can ripple through credit markets and household budgets.