Russia Markets and the Dollar: US Treasuries, Sanctions, and Private Investment

The Bank of Russia does not hold US treasury bonds. Several Russian news agencies reported this, citing the regulator and offering a cautious interpretation of the data.

“We do not buy these papers. Only the U.S. Treasury can comment on the volume of investments made by various countries in these securities,” stated the press service of the National Bank of Russia as reported by RIA Novosti.

In early November, the U.S. Treasury released figures showing that Russia’s holdings of US government bonds rose from about 31 million dollars in August to roughly 73 million in September. The statistics cover both public and private investments in these securities.

Artem Tuzov, head of the corporate finance department at IVA Partners, suggested to RBC that the movements could reflect direct accounts with American brokers rather than broad, countrywide purchases. He noted that Russian individuals and companies continue to transact in U.S. securities with relative ease. While U.S. data previously indicated a sharp decline in Russian holdings since 2022, technical purchases could occur as a part of foreign exchange operations. The volumes cited could reflect substantial capital movement, with private investors potentially active despite sanctions. Tuzov added that buyers with multiple passports might be considering investments that they expect to be insulated from sanctions as long as the Federal Reserve’s rate environment remains favorable.

People in Russia like the dollar a little less

Vedomosti reported that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation started reducing its holdings of American government bonds in April 2018 as new sanctions scenarios emerged. Data cited by the publication show that the volume of holdings dropped from 96 billion dollars to about 48.7 billion in that month, then to 14.9 billion in May. By February 2020, the total had fallen further to around 12.58 billion dollars. The report notes that Russia remained cautious about a rapid shift away from the dollar, signaling that any changes would align with political and regulatory developments in the United States and the global financial system. A scientist-looking stance attributed to a 2018 comment by Vladimir Putin is referenced in discussing the balance between the dollar and domestic financial priorities. The overarching message is that Russia would pursue monetary policy and currency preferences in step with how the United States governs financial settlements and sanctions.

Putin has suggested that Russia no longer seeks to pursue a rapid de-dollarization of the national or global economy. He warned that short-term, opportunistic political goals could undermine American financial influence in the long run. The discussion centers on the dollar’s role as a tool for settlements and as a component of national reserves, raising questions about the reliability of American money in world trade and as a strategic asset for accumulation. The remarks were noted in connection with visits and forums announced for 2023, including a major economic gathering in St. Petersburg where such themes were widely discussed among policy circles.

Russia has signaled a restrained approach to the dollar, weighing the implications of sanctions and the broader US financial framework while continuing to assess how to balance domestic economic needs with global market realities. The exchange of views underscores a broader debate about the currency mix used by Russian institutions and individuals in international transactions, alongside the pressures of sanctions and evolving financial relations with Western economies.

Private investors are waiting for compensation for damage caused to Ukraine

Meanwhile, sanctions have blocked Russian assets worth more than 330 billion dollars in Western jurisdictions, according to data from the U.S. Treasury Department. This amount represents roughly half of Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves, as stated by the finance ministry. In parallel, ministers from the G7 emphasized the intent to freeze Russian assets until Russia provides compensation for damages linked to the Ukraine conflict. The official line stresses that Russian sovereign assets will remain blocked under legal frameworks until reparations are addressed. In Russia’s response, lawmakers have argued that there are moral and legal grounds to maintain asset restrictions in the G7 framework, reflecting the ongoing diplomatic and financial tension. An estimated 1.5 trillion rubles in assets belonging to more than 3.5 million Russian citizens remain inaccessible to the public and the business sector, illustrating the scale of restrictions faced by households and enterprises alike. These tensions shape the broader landscape of international finance and sanctions policy, influencing how Russian residents approach foreign holdings and the potential for future compensation or settlement schemes.

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