In mid February 2023, Russia saw a cooling of price growth across the economy. The annual inflation rate for the week of February 7 through February 13 stood at 11.61 percent, down from 11.72 percent the previous week. This update is based on a ministry review of the current price situation, and it has been reported by news agencies as reflecting the latest read on consumer price dynamics.
During that same week, inflation slowed to 0.18 percent on a week-to-week basis while continuing to run at the higher annual rate. The ministry’s assessment highlights how the softer pace of price increases overall was driven by several key shifts in consumer categories and product groups. Food prices rose more slowly, advancing 0.35 percent in the week after a prior 0.51 percent increase. This moderating food price momentum helped curb the rise of prices for fruits and vegetables, contributing meaningfully to the week’s disinflation.
Another factor noted in the review is the slight easing in prices within the non-food category. This development helped push down prices for electrical goods and white goods, reinforcing the restraining effect on overall inflation for that period. The combined effect of these movements in food and non-food segments painted a clearer picture of deflationary pressure easing the year-over-year headline other than energy-related components.
Market observers and economists surveyed at the time weighed several scenarios about where inflation would head next. One former policy official, Aleksey Zabotkin, who previously served as a deputy governor of the central bank, suggested that annual inflation could dip below four percent in the spring period of the year if current trends continued. His assessment reflected a broader expectation among some analysts that price growth would slow more substantially in the coming months as domestic demand cooled and monetary policy transmission took hold.
Other prominent economists offered a range of projections for the end of the year. Mikhail Belyaev, for example, indicated a potential inflation rate around 12 percent by year-end, with a more favorable development possible down to about eight percent if certain favorable conditions materialized. These views illustrate how market participants were weighing different paths for inflation, balancing evolving supply conditions, exchange rate dynamics, and consumer spending patterns.
Taken together, the February 2023 data pointed to a transitional phase in Russia’s inflation trajectory. The combination of slower food price growth, easing non-food costs, and the influence of broader macroeconomic factors kept the annual rate on a downward path while leaving room for uncertainty about the pace and magnitude of future disinflation. Analysts emphasized the need to monitor how ongoing monetary policy actions, wage developments, and external price pressures could shape inflation through the spring and into the middle of the year. The ministry’s weekly review served as a key reference point for these discussions, offering a detailed snapshot of price movements across major groups and their contributions to the overall inflation picture.