Russia Sees Inflation Slow, With Food Deflation Persisting in Early March
Annual inflation in Russia for the week of March 7 through March 13 declined to 7.65 percent, easing from 9.43 percent recorded a week earlier. This shift comes as part of the latest price situation review prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, with findings reported by TASS. The data highlight a continued cooling in overall price growth compared with the previous period, signaling a gradual return toward more moderate inflation levels.
During the March 7–13 window, the Ministry of Economic Development recorded inflation at 0.02 percent for the week. The message from the department points to ongoing deflation in the food segment, driven by renewed price declines in cheaper fruits, vegetables, and other staple food items. This trend suggests that consumer goods in lower price tiers remained under downward pressure as supply chains adjusted and seasonal factors influenced pricing dynamics.
In contrast to the food sector, non-food products showed relatively stable prices with only modest changes. The services category, however, contributed to a slightly faster pace of price increases due to higher charges in the domestic air travel market, a sector where costs can reflect shifts in demand, scheduling, and operating expenses. The overall picture for non-food and services indicates a mixed but still moderate inflation path, consistent with a broader deceleration in consumer price growth.
Earlier signals from Rosstat indicated a continuation of zero or near-zero inflation in the week spanning February 28 to March 6, underscoring a period of price stability in several segments. Those readings, combined with the March data, portray a domestic inflation trajectory that has cooled from late previous months while leaving room for further adjustments as monetary and fiscal measures take effect.
Commentary from policymakers and government officials has repeatedly noted a tempering of inflation as a key objective. During a recent meeting with members of the State Duma, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin conveyed that inflation in Russia has been gradually easing. Officials emphasized that the annual rate had fallen below the 4 percent threshold, aligning with or even surpassing the central bank’s target band. These statements reflect confidence in the policy mix and the resilience of the economy amid global price pressures and domestic demand conditions, while acknowledging that inflation can remain sensitive to external shocks and energy-market developments.
Looking ahead, analysts expect inflation to continue on a downward path if current trends persist. Factors to watch include the pace of price adjustments in the retail sector, the trajectory of energy costs, and the ongoing effects of any monetary policy actions designed to anchor inflation expectations. While the March figures provide optimism about disinflation, the data also underscore the importance of monitoring food prices and service-sector costs, which can influence household budgeting and consumer sentiment in the months ahead. The evolving balance between food deflation and services-driven price increases will help determine how quickly inflation converges toward the central bank’s longer-term targets.
Overall, the March period reflects a convergence toward lower inflation rates for Russia, with deflationary pressures in food and modest increases in non-food and service prices shaping the short-term outlook. The combination of these forces suggests a stabilizing environment for household purchasing power, even as authorities remain vigilant for any renewed inflationary surprises that could alter the trajectory in the near term. (Ministry of Economic Development) (Rosstat) (Prime Minister’s Office)