Ilya Vasilkov, a product manager for deposits at Compare financial market, offers a forecast about where deposit yields are headed. He predicts that the average rate on bank deposits will slide to the 18 to 19 percent zone by the end of 2025. The projection sits against a backdrop of policy moves and market expectations that shape returns on safe cash across economies. For savers in Canada and the United States who monitor global rate moves, the message is relevant; it shows how policy signals from central banks and the pricing decisions of domestic lenders can influence the interest paid on ordinary deposits, even across continents. The outlook emphasizes that profits from deposits depend on a sequence of policy cues and bank pricing behaviors, and it suggests a softer environment for new and renewing deposit contracts as 2025 progresses.
The profitability of deposits will hinge on the next policy meeting of the Central Bank of Russia. He notes that early estimates point to a possible rise in average deposit yields to about 22 or 23 percent in the first half of the year, followed by a decline toward 18 or 19 percent in the second half. Such a path would reflect the balance between a hawkish stance to curb inflation and the eventual easing that markets price in as inflation pressure eases. For readers in North America, this pattern highlights how shifts in a major regional policy setting can ripple into cross border funding rates or the attractiveness of domestic deposit options when investors diversify.
On December 20, 2024, the Central Bank left the key rate at 21 percent. In the previous year the regulator raised the key rate three times, and banks increased the returns offered on deposits. At present, deposit rates have exceeded 21 percent. As a rule, credit institutions align their deposit pricing with movements in the key rate. Historically, when the key rate moves up by one percentage point, banks tend to raise deposit rates by about a point or a bit more, a dynamic that has shaped saver yields in Russia and serves as a reminder for investors looking at deposit options in Canada and the United States that local rates can be influenced by global policy signals.
Financial institutions tune their strategies around the timing of major policy meetings, including the Federal Reserve events in the United States, and they watch the consensus forecast for the policy rate. Economists and financial analysts surveyed indicate that the Central Bank of Russia is likely to hold the rate at 21 percent for most of 2025, with a gradual easing toward around 16 percent by year end. This projected trajectory helps explain the pricing of deposits and the potential for slightly higher or lower yields over different quarters, a factor that North American savers may weigh when considering foreign deposit products or diversified portfolios that include instruments tied to global rate cycles.
The last question concerns the implications of not paying the deposit tax. The typical answer is that penalties for nonpayment can include back taxes, fines, and interest charges, along with enforcement steps by tax authorities. Savers and investors should be aware of tax treatment on deposit income and the importance of timely reporting to avoid any negative consequences, especially as cross border deposit opportunities continue to evolve in 2025.