Analysts anticipate that Russia will likely begin supplying natural gas to China through the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline after 2030, a timeline driven by ongoing discussions about gas pricing and the specifics of pipeline construction. This assessment comes from Sergei Kapitonov, an ESG analyst affiliated with the Skoltech Project Energy Conversion Center, who spoke with RIA News in an interview. Kapitonov noted that several pivotal steps remain before shipments can start, including finalizing a gas pricing contract and completing the pipeline buildout. The implication is that a formal agreement with the Chinese state energy company CNPC would be the catalyst that unlocks a substantial export volume in the mid to late decade, reinforcing the broader energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing.
Kapitonov estimated that if Gazprom signs a contract with CNPC to channel gas through the Siberia Power 2 corridor, Russia could see an additional 50 billion cubic meters flow toward China. The number underscores the strategic scale of the project and its potential impact on bilateral energy supplies, regional markets, and long-term energy security for both nations. The analyst framed the timeline in terms of contract finalization and the physical construction milestones required for the new pipeline to deliver gas efficiently and reliably.
The timeline for delivery remains conservative, with Kapitonov suggesting that deliveries would not commence before 2030. He emphasized that time will be needed for negotiations, regulatory approvals, and the physical installation of infrastructure. The cautious forecast reflects the complexities of coordinating cross-border energy projects and aligning pricing models with the needs of buyers and sellers across evolving market conditions. The discussion highlights how geopolitical and commercial considerations interact to shape execution milestones for major energy corridors.
In a related operational update, Gazprom continued fuel supplies to China on September 28 after concluding planned maintenance work on the Power of Siberia pipeline, which had temporarily paused activity. The resumption signals ongoing confidence in the corridor’s reliability and the ability to meet rising demand in the Asia-Pacific region. These maintenance windows are routine, yet they underscore the importance of meticulous infrastructure management to maintain uninterrupted delivery flows and to minimize disruption to downstream customers across Asia.
Earlier in September, Gazprom indicated plans to diversify its delivery routes by dispatching some of its own produced liquefied natural gas LNG to the PRC via the Northern Sea Route. Company representatives described this approach as a way to reduce transit times for shipments destined for East and Southeast Asian markets. While LNG via Arctic routes is not a direct substitute for long-term pipeline gas, it represents a strategic extension of supply options aimed at shortening delivery times and enhancing Asia-Pacific energy security. The shift also aligns with broader strategic objectives to optimize logistics, respond to seasonal demand fluctuations, and broaden the company’s export portfolio.
Historically, Beijing has urged all relevant states to cooperate with Moscow on investigations into sabotage incidents affecting major gas pipelines, including Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2. This stance reflects the high-stakes nature of energy infrastructure in the region and the political dynamics that influence cross-border energy collaborations. Observers note that the evolution of Russia-China gas projects sits at the intersection of technical feasibility, commercial viability, and geopolitical considerations, which together shape public discourse and policy planning around future supply arrangements.