According to a market study prepared by Yakov and Partners and circulated through Socialbites, the number of Russians purchasing apartments in new buildings in 2025 is expected to fall by roughly 19 to 35 percent compared with 2024. In the base-case scenario, this translates into sales dropping from about 7.5 trillion rubles in 2024 to around 5.3 trillion rubles in 2025. The study frames this as part of a broader trend visible this year, where buyers show increased sensitivity to price movements and changes in financing conditions. Analysts view it as a sign that demand is adjusting to higher financing costs and tighter household budgets, while developers recalibrate their project pipelines to maintain cash flow during a difficult cycle.
In the base-case, housing prices are projected to rise by about 12 percent over the 2024-2025 period. To sustain sales volumes and help close project financing, developers are expected to offer discounts ranging from five to thirty percent. Banks may introduce mortgage products with variable interest rates or options to defer the first loan payment, measures aimed at lifting demand for new apartments. Yet analysts stress that a high inflation path would keep nominal price levels relatively stable in real terms, even as the market adapts to new financing arrangements and household budgets.
From the perspective of construction cost structure, the cost of building one square meter in the base scenario is expected to climb by roughly 15 percent over the next three years. Development margins in 2025 could be as low as about 10 percent, compared with a 15 to 60 percent range in 2023, and there is even a risk they turn negative. Taken together, these factors may push about 30 percent of developers to losses in 2025, according to Danchenok.
In a pessimistic scenario, new housing sales could shrink further to about 4.9 trillion rubles in 2025. The pessimistic scenario assumes that the Central Bank will push the key rate higher than its current level of 21 percent, Russians’ freely disposable income will decrease, and external restrictions will continue to constrain activity.
VTB reports that in the first ten months of 2024 Russians took out mortgages totaling 4.2 trillion rubles, about 30 percent lower than in the same period of 2023. Mortgage transactions in October were down about 60 percent compared with September, underscoring a cooling market for borrowings and the resulting pressure on housing demand.
Earlier assessments of mortgage activity in 2025 remain uncertain.