In the coming week, analysts foresee the ruble stabilizing and trading within a modest corridor against major currencies. This projection comes from Sovcombank’s chief analyst, Mikhail Vasiliev, who notes a steady pattern as markets weigh tax period dynamics and budget considerations.
Specifically, the ruble is expected to move within the 75 to 79 per dollar range, while the euro could hover around 81 to 85 per unit and the yuan near 10.8 to 11.3 per unit. The early part of the week may see gradual strengthening for the ruble, driven largely by seasonal tax activity and exporters converting dollars into rubles to fulfill budgetary obligations.
Vasiliev explains that the budget rule and targeted foreign exchange interventions will continue to provide some support to the ruble. The Finance Ministry has been actively selling yuan to offset revenue shortfalls from oil and gas sales, a move intended to help balance the budget during a period of fiscal adjustment. This action acts as a cushion, helping to stabilize the currency in the face of shifting global energy prices and domestic demand for hard currency.
Earlier signals from market watchers indicated that the ruble could face volatility during the period of fiscal settlement, yet the anticipated range still reflects a relatively contained outlook. Investors will be watching how policy responses unfold and how exporters time their currency conversions as the budget framework evolves. In this environment, the interplay between government spending, revenue collection, and currency market operations remains a key driver for near-term movements in the ruble.
Looking ahead to March and April, analysts have suggested that the ruble may hold a firmer footing if trade conditions and energy markets stabilize. The currency could test resistance levels within a broadened corridor, with potential fluctuations tied to monetary policy signals and external shocks. Market participants are advised to monitor ongoing budgetary measures, currency interventions, and international price trends for oil and gas as they shape short-term expectations. In this context, the ruble’s trajectory will likely reflect a balance between fiscal discipline and market supply of foreign currency, anchored by central bank and government actions aimed at supporting financial stability.