Following international sanctions, the share of ruble and yuan settlements between Russia and other nations has risen noticeably. Analysts from the VEB Research and Expertise Institute, part of the state company VEB.RF, say these currencies are likely to remain central in the forecasted period.
At present, settlements among residents of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) predominantly occur in Russian currency, exceeding seventy percent. The yuan’s role is also expanding: Russia conducts around 16 percent of its exports and 23 percent of its imports in this currency. In the medium term, experts anticipate that the ruble and yuan will gain greater prominence in mutual settlements among economies that are developing or emerging.
Since 2022, the dollar and euro have become less accessible for many Russian companies, and cashless payments are increasingly constrained even with friendly partners due to the risk of secondary sanctions and the removal of some Russian banks from global messaging networks. As a result, several alternative models for international settlements have begun to emerge and evolve. VEB researchers highlight ruble and yuan settlement arrangements as the most promising avenues to support trade and cooperation in this environment.
In May, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin noted that about 70 percent of cross-border dealings with China are conducted in national currencies, including the ruble and yuan. He also pointed to energy supply contracts, covering oil, gas, and coal, being increasingly settled in these currencies instead of traditional international instruments.