Rosneft stock projections were recently adjusted by Sberbank, lifting the estimated value by nearly 20 percent to as high as 655 rubles from an initial 550 rubles. This revision appears in a report from Sber CIB, the bank’s institutional investment division, which focuses on Russia’s oil and gas sector and was released in August. The report also reaffirms a persistent buy rating on Rosneft shares, signaling continued confidence in the company’s near-term performance.
Analysts at Sberbank have also expressed a positive outlook for Rosneft and for other major players in the same industry. In 2023, Rosneft’s dividend per share is projected to exceed 70 rubles, yielding around 13 percent, according to the August update. The June forecast had pegged the annual dividend at 52 rubles per share with a 12 percent yield. The bank highlighted Rosneft as the solitary company in Russia’s oil and gas sector capable of maintaining EBITDA levels and pushing net profit higher in 2023.
Other institutions have set their own price targets above 600 rubles. Renaissance Capital puts Rosneft at about 640 rubles per share, while BCS Global Markets estimates roughly 610 rubles. These figures reflect broad optimism about Rosneft’s ability to navigate a challenging environment and preserve value for investors.
Rosneft also announced the completion of its final dividend payment for 2022. The per-share payout stood at 17.97 rubles. When combined with the total 2022 dividend per share of 38.36 rubles, the company distributed a substantial return to holders. Dividends in 2022 were supported by Rosneft’s policy of distributing 50 percent of IFRS net profit and were paid twice yearly. The total dividend payout for 2022 marked a historical high for the company, and the shareholder base expanded significantly, with the total number of Rosneft shareholders rising roughly 4.5 times over the previous two years, reaching about 900 thousand by mid-year.
Industry analysts also address fiscal risk facing the sector. They note a notable uptick in taxation pressure over recent quarters, which points to a higher MET rate in 2024. Valery Andrianov of the InfoTEK analytics center cites the current tax burden on the oil sector as one of the heaviest in the Russian economy, estimating it near 78 percent. In the last 3.5 years, regulatory changes have touched the sector with about 26 revisions to key tax parameters.
In July 2023, new adjustments were introduced to lower the fuel damper and increase production burdens, affecting the sector’s revenue streams for 2023 through 2026. Analysts estimate that these shifts will extract about 1 trillion rubles from the sector over that period. As the tax framework evolves, industry observers expect additional fiscal measures that could further influence the oil sector’s contribution to the national budget. If tax burdens rise toward levels seen in energy-intensive industries, the broader economy could see several trillion rubles in incremental revenue for the state within a single year, presenting a mixed outlook for investors and policymakers alike.