In 2023, pipeline gas exports from Russia to Europe are projected to fall by about 35 billion cubic meters compared with 2022, even as overall supply levels are expected to stay steady. This assessment comes from a report released by the International Energy Agency on its website, offering a wide view of how flows might evolve amid shifting market dynamics and geopolitical factors shaping European energy security.
The IEA report further indicates that Russian gas deliveries to OECD Europe will decline by roughly 45 percent this year relative to the previous year. It notes that this projection excludes several countries that are often counted as part of the broader European region for energy statistics, including Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, and Romania. The takeaway is that the pressure on pipeline supply to the rest of the OECD area remains substantial, even as Europe continues to pursue diversification and storage strategies.
Earlier projections, published in February, had anticipated a 40 percent reduction in Russian gas shipments to Europe, translating to about 30 billion cubic meters. The newer estimate appears to reflect a shift in the underlying assumptions or execution by Russia, signaling a potentially larger or more rapid adjustment in the flow of gas compared with the winter months of the previous year. Market observers closely track these revisions because they directly influence pricing, contract negotiations, and planning for power generation and industrial users across Europe.
In early May, Reuters reported, citing the Refinitiv Eikon data portal, that Russia exported 10.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas in the January-to-April 2023 period, a decline of 11 percent from the same window in 2022. At the same time, the volume of LNG shipments destined for Europe remained on par with the previous year, implying that the LNG market in Europe continued to absorb supplies despite broader pipeline reductions. The mixed signals from LNG versus pipeline gas are a focal point for traders and policymakers as they balance storage, regasification capacity, and seasonal demand swings.
Earlier commentary from industry executives noted a potential leveling of market tension as the European gas market moves into the summer months. Christian Signoretto, who heads Enis Global Gas and LNG Portfolio, spoke during a teleconference about expectations for improved conditions in the European gas market through the summer, suggesting that this season may not be as tight as last year. He also highlighted that winter could bring greater volatility, with Europe beginning the summer season from a position of stockpiling at higher levels than in 2022. Such observations feed into a broader narrative about how European storage strategies, interconnections, and market liquidity interact with global gas trade flows to shape near-term prices and reliability for households and industry alike.