The strengthening of the ruble against other currencies followed Russia’s decision to end foreign exchange correspondent accounts for all banks, with Raiffeisen Bank’s local subsidiary as the only exception. This development was noted in a statement linked to the Lokoinvest portfolio and communicated to markets. Market watchers in North America and beyond highlighted that such measures can alter liquidity flows and currency exposure, affecting how businesses price imports and hedge risks in a volatile environment.
Analysts described Friday’s ruble rally as being driven by shifts in financial flows, possibly linked to Raiffeisen’s stance and the broader sanction-related dynamics. A number of observers cautioned that currency trajectories remain sensitive to policy signals, international sanctions, and the evolving risk appetite of foreign counterparties. In this context, the forecast for the dollar’s path remained cautious, with a potential corridor around the 74–76 ruble level over the next three to six months being considered by many practitioners as a plausible balance of payments outcome, rather than a fixed target.
For many traders, the closure of correspondent accounts is seen as a stark reminder of the perceived currency “toxicity” associated with funds from unfriendly jurisdictions. In practical terms, holding or moving such currencies within Russia can pose increased operational challenges and risk considerations for banks, corporates, and investors alike. The broader implication is a tighter link between domestic liquidity and the ability to settle international trades in a timely manner, which influences spreads, funding costs, and the cost of hedges used to manage currency risk.
Going forward, the dollar’s trajectory is expected to remain volatile in the near term as markets respond to policy updates, sanctions news, and the evolving geopolitical backdrop. A wide trading range—from roughly 70 to 80 rubles per dollar—could be seen as a normal feature of a payments balance that is adjusting to shifting flows and sanctions regimes, rather than a reflection of permanent structural shifts in the ruble’s value. Investors and risk managers in Canada and the United States often watch these dynamics closely, seeking to understand how nonresident capital movements, import demand, and monetary policy stance converge to shape short- to medium-term currency volatility.
Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) announced on May 5 that it would terminate its correspondent relationships with all Russian banks, with Raiffeisenbank, its Russian subsidiary, remaining as an exception. This decision aligns with the broader pattern of central and international banking partners reassessing exposure to the Russian market amid ongoing sanctions and geopolitical tensions. The decision reduces the number of direct channels for funds to flow into and out of Russia, increasing the perceived friction in cross-border settlement processes and potentially boosting the demand for alternative payment rails and correspondent network arrangements among Russian banks and their international clients.
At the start of the year, RBI’s activity in the Russian market had already receded as the Austrian group sought to consolidate its presence in a challenging environment. The reduced footprint reflected the heightened compliance burden and the cost of maintaining operations under a sanctions regime that has persisted and evolved over time. Industry observers note that such retrenchment can reshape competitive dynamics among Western banks and influence the access that Russian corporates have to international banking services, timing, and pricing for trade and finance. Overall market sentiment in North America suggests a cautious approach, weighing the benefits of continued access to global liquidity against the risks of operating in a market subject to ongoing sanctions and regulatory scrutiny. (Source: RBI communications and market commentary)