Recent analysis from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) highlights a striking dynamic in the Russian oil trade: roughly two-thirds of oil and related products are carried by ships that are insured, owned, or operated by fleets linked to countries that have supported Russia’s energy price cap. Even with the price ceiling in place, observers note that the oil remains sold at prices that exceed the cap, a sign that enforcement gaps and market incentives continue to erode the intended effect of the policy. This finding has been cited by Bloomberg as part of CREA’s data-driven assessment of the enforcement landscape surrounding the cap. [CITATION CREA]
CREA’s research underscores that Russia continues to rely on European-flagged vessels for transporting its crude and fuels. Analysts point to two contributing factors: the existence of “shadow fleets” that operate outside transparent registries and the uneven application of the cap by sovereign authorities. The result, according to CREA, is a price environment where the cap’s intended price floor is undermined not only by covert logistics but also by insufficient punitive measures against violators by participating governments. [CITATION CREA]
In December 2022, the European Union and the Group of Seven nations agreed to a price ceiling on Russian oil, setting a benchmark at no more than $60 per barrel for crude. A subsequent adjustment in February 2023 introduced a separate framework for products that trade at a premium or discount relative to crude benchmarks, establishing caps of $100 per barrel for premium-priced products and $45 per barrel for discounted ones. These thresholds were designed to tighten financial pressure on Moscow while stabilizing global markets, though their real-world impact has varied across regions and shipping routes. [CITATION CREA]
Following the implementation of the cap, several international oil traders reportedly began to decline the use of tankers associated with Russian cargoes. By mid-2023, Bloomberg reported that the European Union was actively weighing measures to bar access to its ports for vessels found to be skirting the oil sanctions regime, signaling a broader willingness to escalate enforcement through port access restrictions and related controls. The evolving policy environment has prompted buyers and insurers to reassess risk, with many players seeking to align their operations with the letter and spirit of the cap to avoid reputational and financial penalties. [CITATION BLOOMBERG]
Historical price movements also factor into how the cap is perceived and applied. When oil prices drop toward key psychological levels, such as around $50 per barrel, market participants often reprice risk in ways that can either blunt or amplify the effects of the cap. Analysts emphasize that price dynamics, shipping costs, and the availability of compliant vessels all interact with policy design, making ongoing monitoring essential for understanding real-world outcomes. The CREA framework suggests that the top-line numbers tell only part of the story; the enforcement discipline, shipping practices, and regional demand patterns collectively shape the final price signals observed in markets. [CITATION CREA]