Fitch Ratings has updated its outlook for global gold and coking coal prices through 2026, as laid out in the agency’s published forecasts. The assessment is documented on Fitch’s site and signals a shift in market dynamics that readers in Canada and the United States will likely watch closely given today’s energy and manufacturing cycles driven by commodities. Fitch notes that the change reflects evolving demand signals and price movements observed since the year’s start, creating a tighter gold market and potential ripple effects across investment products and consumer sectors in North America. In this context, gold becomes a central element of the revised scenario, with the price horizon moving from a previous expectation near 1,800 dollars per ounce to a forecast around 1,900 dollars in 2023. The adjustment implies more pronounced hedging activity by investors and central banks seeking inflation protection, with implications for exchange-traded products and jewelry markets that directly affect North American consumers and financial institutions. The tone suggests a tighter bullion market that could influence portfolio construction and risk management in the region. This perspective comes with a reminder that market timing and macro factors play a role in shaping demand for physical gold and related financial instruments. — Fitch Ratings”diversified attribution”
On coking coal, Fitch’s 2023 projection has been revised upward to 250 dollars per ton from the earlier estimate of 220 dollars. The lift mirrors higher production costs and a continued emphasis on securing metallurgical coal supplies used in steelmaking. The update matters for steel producers, manufacturers, and energy-intensive industries across Canada, the United States, and allied markets where coal inputs affect operating margins and the viability of projects. The implication is that steelmaking economics may face sustained pressure from input costs, reinforcing the need for prudent procurement and risk planning among buyers in North America. Fitch frames this as a market where supply resilience supports near-term pricing endurance. — Fitch Ratings”diversified attribution”
Forecasts for 2024 through 2026 have also been raised. The new path suggests coal prices around 190, 180, and 170 dollars per ton in those years, higher than prior estimates near 150 dollars. Fitch points to persistent cost pressures across the supply chain, including mining expenses, logistics, and environmental compliance costs that shape the price trajectory. At the same time, the agency argues that the ongoing energy transition should not dramatically curb demand for coking coal because steel production remains heavily reliant on traditional coal-based processes in the near term. In this context, expected growth in global steel consumption is seen as a factor sustaining coal demand and price resilience even as alternative energy sources gain traction elsewhere. The result is a forecast that aligns with a steady, but carefully monitored, demand backdrop for coking coal in North American markets. — Fitch Ratings”diversified attribution”
In related market movements, traders and analysts have observed how regional price caps intersected with supply realities. Reports indicate that the Urals blend and related crude contracts surpassed certain price thresholds set in August, a dynamic that feeds into broader energy pricing expectations and currency considerations across North American markets. Although not the focal point of Fitch’s metal price outlook, these shifts illustrate the interconnected nature of energy and industrial commodities and how macroeconomic factors can influence risk assessments and portfolio choices for regional buyers and sellers alike. The observation underscores the sensitivity of metal and energy pricing to broader market environments that North American participants monitor when planning hedges and procurement strategies. — Fitch Ratings”diversified attribution”
Policy actions and governmental developments have also shaped the outlook for energy and oil markets. Fields such as Brent crude continue to see revisions in price forecasts as updates reflect shifts in demand, supply discipline, and geopolitical factors. Investors and industry observers in Canada and the United States track these revisions closely since Brent prices echo global supply-demand dynamics and can color hedging strategies, project financing decisions, and corporate budgeting within the North American energy sector. Fitch emphasizes how policy shifts interact with market fundamentals to influence commodity trajectories over the medium term, including the period through 2026, highlighting the link between governance, market structure, and price paths for energy and metallurgical commodities. — Fitch Ratings”diversified attribution”