Rewrite of European Gas Price Movements December 2022 and Early 2023 Outlook

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In December 2022, European gas prices saw a significant drop from November, with a decline of 48% and an average around $845 per thousand cubic meters. The figures cited by TASS are attributed to data from the London ICE Futures Exchange and the agency’s own calculations, painting a clearer picture of price movements in the European gas market during that month. This sharp month‑over‑month decrease followed a period of volatility and provided a window into how weather, storage activity, and market expectations interact to shape pricing across the region.

At the end of November, gas futures hovered near $1,558 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to the reporting. By December 30, the closing price had fallen to $845, a drop of 48% relative to the prior month’s level. This sequence underscores how quickly market sentiment can shift in response to changing supply and demand dynamics, as well as to broader macroeconomic signals affecting energy markets across Europe.

According to TASS, the average price for November stood at $1,262 per 1,000 cubic meters, with December showing a slight uptick to $1,272 on average. In the first half of December, price levels remained nearly flat, a period characterized by persistent cold weather that elevated heating demand and supported relatively firm pricing, even as the latest market movements began to take shape. The data suggest that persistent cold spells can sustain elevated regional consumption, while price volatility may still be driven by supply constraints and storage considerations.

The agency noted that toward the end of December, unusually warm conditions emerged across much of Europe, contributing to a notable price retreat. As temperatures rose above normal, demand for gas for heating waned, and storage operations reflected this shift. Gas extraction from underground storage facilities cooled off, leading to a reduction in withdrawals, while injection activities reached record levels as traders prepared for seasonal fluctuations and anticipated changes in supply and demand balance. This interplay between weather, storage strategy, and market expectations helps explain the observed price dynamics in the final days of the year.

On 28 December, RIA Novosti cited Eurofer data indicating that gas prices in the European Union were expected to rise in the first through third quarters of 2023. The report suggested that, despite a December decline, price levels could remain near historically high ranges in the near term, reflecting ongoing structural factors in the European gas market. Such projections illustrate how industry analyses and tariff structures, combined with storage and import patterns, can sustain elevated price baselines even as short‑term volatility abates, and they underscore the uncertainty that market participants face when forecasting quarterly trajectories in a highly interconnected energy system.

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