The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has unveiled draft guidelines that aim to define when demand spikes for goods and rising operating costs translate into unreasonable price movements. This overview, relayed by RBC based on an internal FAS document, outlines how the service intends to measure price changes that depart markedly from what would be expected under competitive market conditions.
Central to the methodology is the question of whether a price that drifts significantly from the level a well-functioning market would offer, given shifts in supply and demand, can be regarded as reasonable. The assessment looks beyond a single snapshot and considers how market dynamics could justify price levels over a period rather than at a single moment.
Of particular importance are signals from purchasing activity. When orders for a product in a given month rise by more than 10 percent relative to typical supply for that item, the guideline signals heightened attention. Other indicators of increased demand include a rising rate of sales, shrinking inventories, and a consistently rapid pace of transactions that outstrips normal turnover.
FAS also points to another indirect signal of potentially unreasonable pricing: a swift uptick in the cost of goods as reflected in the consumer price index, accompanied by profitability that sits above industry averages. In such circumstances, prices may warrant closer scrutiny to determine whether changes in input costs or demand pressures fully explain the observed price level.
To estimate what constitutes a reasonable price, FAS proposes a tailored formula that incorporates the Rosstat index alongside real growth measures. When costs are evaluated, the regulator recommends conducting a factor analysis over a three-year window using both accounting records and operational data. This broader view helps separate temporary fluctuations from longer-term cost trends that could support price adjustments.
Historically, commentators have weighed the consequences of disconnecting domestic price movements from global benchmarks. The discussion notes that aligning or diverging prices can have wide-ranging implications for consumer welfare, competition, and the behavior of market players across sectors.
There have also been public cases where authorities accused companies of inflating prices. For example, officials previously identified instances involving price manipulation in ride-hailing services, highlighting the importance of transparent pricing practices and effective oversight in fast-moving markets.