In 2022, the consolidated budget surplus of Russia’s regional governments contracted dramatically, shrinking by roughly a factor of ten compared with 2021. This shift, described in the annual findings of the Court of Accounts, reflects broader fiscal pressures that surfaced across the federation. The report notes that the sum of the regional surpluses at year-end declined to 50.1 billion rubles, down from 660.8 billion rubles a year earlier. This sharp reversal underscores a transition from a seemingly buoyant regional fiscal stance to a period where most budgets faced tighter income conditions and greater strain on reserves.
According to the Court of Accounts, the combined budgets of fifty regions registered a deficit totaling 447.3 billion rubles, with Moscow, Tyumen, and Belgorod among the largest negative contributors. The same document highlights that thirty-five regions managed to post surpluses that year, accumulating a cumulative 497.4 billion rubles. Notably, a significant share of the surplus—approximately 65%—was concentrated in a handful of affluent regions, including St. Petersburg, the Sakhalin Region, Moscow, the Kemerovo Region, and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. This regional dispersion points to uneven fiscal resilience across the federation and underscores how local economic structures and fiscal policies amplified disparities in 2022.
Tax collection dynamics played a central role in shaping the trajectory of regional revenues and expenditures. In the first half of the year, tax receipts rose in response to higher Urals oil prices and a stronger dollar, but a reversal occurred by mid-year, leading to reduced collections. The report also highlights that some revenues were affected by policy measures, including refunds of tax overpayments designed to support the oil sector, as well as sanctions that constrained corporate earnings. Taken together, these factors illustrate how macroeconomic shocks and sector-specific policy choices fed into the regional balance sheets, complicating budgeting efforts nationwide.
The Court of Accounts identifies the main areas of spending by regional budgets as the national economy (about 27.4%), housing and social services (around 21%), and education, which rose by 16.2% year over year. The growth in expenditure across these categories is attributed in part to inflation, an uptick in the minimum wage, and efforts to raise living standards. This expenditure pattern reveals how regional authorities responded to evolving social needs and macroeconomic conditions, even as revenue streams faced headwinds from global energy markets and currency fluctuations. The document implies that maintaining essential services amid inflation and lower-than-expected revenue required careful stewardship and, in some cases, difficult choices about borrowing or reprioritization of funds.
A key risk highlighted by analysts is the potential for a growing regional budget deficit to reach a tipping point where authorities can no longer meet obligations to residents without recourse to borrowing from the federal level. Such dependence would intensify centralized control and diminish local financial autonomy. In commentary accompanying the data, Natalya Milchakova, a principal analyst at Freedom Finance Global, warned that growing deficits could raise the likelihood of intensified intergovernmental financing needs and increased fiscal vulnerability for certain subjects of the federation. This cautions policymakers about the long-term sustainability of regional debt levels and the importance of maintaining a prudent balance between current expenditures and revenue generation.
Context from prior reporting indicates that the dynamics of the coal industry contributed to the federal budget through elevated revenue in 2022, a trend that underscores the connection between commodity cycles and regional fiscal capacity. Officials indicated that coal-related income flowed into the national budget at a higher pace that year, reflecting how mining sectors continue to influence macroeconomic buffers and the capacity of authorities to fund regional programs during periods of market volatility.