Even as the seasonal dip drags on, the typical cost of renting an apartment in Russia’s big cities continues to edge upward. Property owners have not started cutting prices yet, since many would-be buyers remain locked into costly mortgages. This trend, noted by Kommersant, mirrors a broader calculus where rental demand stays sturdy while mortgage incentives wane.
Analysts report that the average monthly rent for a one-bedroom unit in the 18 largest regions rose by 0.2 percent from the prior month, landing at 27.3 thousand rubles in February. Two-bedroom rentals slipped a touch, down 0.2 percent to around 40 thousand rubles, signaling a nuanced shift across segments rather than a uniform market retreat.
Regional contrasts dominate the headlines. The sharpest gains for one-bedroom rentals were recorded in Ufa (up 6.3%), Voronezh (up 5.2%), and Tyumen (up 3.4%). In contrast, a few cities saw softer prices: Novosibirsk rose by 4.6% while Saint Petersburg posted a retreat of about 1.4%. Moscow bucked the trend with a steady rise, as the city’s average rent for a one-bedroom reached roughly 57.1 thousand rubles, up 0.7% month over month. Analysts caution that prices are unlikely to retreat in the near term given persistent demand and relatively tight supply in the capital.
Market dynamics are shifting under the hood. Mortgage costs in the secondary market have climbed notably, while loan approvals in the primary market have constrained the availability of favorable financing. This shift has implications for rental markets, as more property owners with mortgaged portfolios lean toward monetizing through rental income rather to await favorable sale terms. Olga Pavlinova, who leads the Etazhi rental department, notes that the current environment keeps landlords from accelerating price cuts, since many are meeting bank obligations through rental cash flow rather than discounting rents.
Pavlinova adds that in numerous regional centers landlords have not yet sensed intensified competition for tenants. This comfort with pricing persists even as the peak rental season approaches later in the summer and into autumn, when demand is typically strongest. The result is a market where rents are more likely to rise than fall in the near future, driven by inventory constraints and ongoing affordability pressures in the mortgage sector.
The broader picture shows a country where housing finance has become a central driver of rental behavior. Mortgage approvals in the primary market have become more selective, a trend that translates into steadier or higher rents in many regions. Landlords, seeing the cost of financing and the risk of vacancy, may prefer to hold stable rates rather than chase market share through deep discounts. In turn, renters face a market that rewards patience and flexibility, with limited opportunities to secure significantly cheaper housing without compromising on location or size.
For observers, the question remains: how long will this imbalance hold? With mortgage approval standards still tightening and the secondary market carrying higher price points, many renters continue to shoulder costs that roughly track or exceed the rate of wage growth in several urban centers. This reality suggests that the rental market will remain an important lease strategy for households navigating high financing barriers, while buyers weigh the total cost of ownership against the benefits of long-term rental stability.
Additionally, the market narrative hints at regional disparities that could influence future rent trajectories. Cities with healthier job markets, stronger local economies, and better rental supply management might see more elastic pricing, while centers facing slower population growth or weaker wage momentum could experience different patterns. In any case, the overarching message is clear: when mortgage dynamics tighten and primary lending tightens, renting becomes a more attractive, and often more stable, option for many households across Russia and similar urban economies.
Ultimately, analysts see the coming months as a critical period for rental pricing. The convergence of mortgage costs, lending policies, and landlord expectations will continue to shape how rents evolve through the peak season and beyond. The balance between landlord flexibility and tenant affordability will determine whether prices stabilize, drift higher, or in rare cases dip in response to shifting supply and demand pressures. In this evolving environment, renters and landlords alike are watching closely how policy and market forces interact to redefine the urban housing landscape.
Forecasts suggest that the strongest price movements will track the interplay between mortgage affordability and regional demand. If primary market financing remains constrained, landlords may maintain cautious pricing, particularly in markets with high demand intensity. Conversely, any easing in lending standards or new incentives could encourage more price competition, potentially easing rent pressures in select locales.