The odds of a downturn in the US economy remain high, according to recent polling reported by The Wall Street Journal. Analysts put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at a record 44%, a figure that signals heightened concern across markets and policy circles.
Throughout the year, The Wall Street Journal has conducted multiple surveys, each pointing to rising anxiety among industry analysts. In April, economists voiced a roughly 28% chance of a recession next year, while January’s estimate stood near 18%. These shifts reflect growing worry about external and domestic pressures facing the economy.
Economists noted that the jump to 44% in the near term marks a level usually seen only at the edge of downturns or during actual recessions. Earlier survey readings had suggested a more moderate risk, with 28% projected in April and 18% in January, indicating a rapid shift in sentiment as new data emerged.
The report attributes the higher recession risk to persistent inflationary pressures and the tightening stance of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. These factors have intensified concerns about how price pressures and monetary constraints could influence economic activity in the near term.
On June 24, Janet Yellen, head of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, pushed back against the economists’ higher risk assessment. She argued that the probability of a recession could be tempered by a resilient labor market and a gradual easing of inflation, suggesting that the path to stability remains intact despite the debate among experts.