Markets in real estate are signaling notable shifts around February 1, with mixed trajectories across different segments. In the new-build sector, price movement could rise by roughly 10-15%, while premium housing in the secondary market might soften by about 5-10%. Observers from Life.ru, after discussions with a range of market specialists, share these expectations as a baseline for what to watch in the near term.
Valery Kochetkov of Inkom-Real Estate notes that demand for newly developed homes has cooled as concessional mortgage terms tighten. The decline could reach around 35% by 2024, creating a scenario where developers are unlikely to lower asking prices even as their costs rise. This dynamic points to a double movement in the market: builders may hold firm on price while adjusting financing terms that influence buyer behavior and project pacing over the coming months.
In Moscow and the surrounding region, affordable housing is forecast to see price increases in the ballpark of 10-15%. Meanwhile, high-end premium units, often referred to in local markets as “three rubles” and “four,” are expected to retreat by roughly 5-7%. This contrast highlights a broader recalibration where budget and mid-market offerings attract more attention, while luxury segments experience selective price adjustments driven by demand liquidity and the mix of available inventory.
Natalia Borzenkova of Inkom adds that roughly half of sellers in the secondary market are already willing to accept discounts of up to 10%. Yet the overall average price is not anticipated to fall sharply, given robust demand for assets that remain highly liquid. The resilience of high-liquidity properties is a key factor shaping near-term movements in secondary prices, even as a portion of listings becomes more price-sensitive.
Petr Zverev argues that secondary apartments requiring six months or less for renovation could see price declines as sellers respond to the need for upgrades and the time required to finish improvements. At the same time, new developments are likely to maintain their premium status, making a steep drop in resale prices less likely in the near term. This divergence reflects ongoing market segmentation where fresh supply commands attention, but renovations can reconfigure value quickly in the secondary market.
Developer Maxim Lazovsky observes that through the summer there may not be dramatic shifts across the national market. Developers seem inclined to expand existing preferential programs while awaiting a fuller assessment of last year’s indexation. The expectation is a measured pace of change, with policy incentives continuing to influence buyer access and project planning for the near term.
On a policy note, recent actions by the Federal Tax Service touched on rent payments involving foreign accounts, signaling ongoing regulatory activity that could influence transfer and rental behaviors. Market participants will be watching how such measures interact with lending patterns and cross-border investment in the housing sector.
Looking back, mortgage activity in the Russian Federation reached historically high levels in both size and duration. This backdrop supported strong demand in certain segments, particularly when rates and terms aligned with buyer capacities. As lending conditions evolve, the balance between affordability, lending risk, and property supply will continue to drive price trajectories across both new and resale markets.