Novak did not confirm or deny remarks about possible oil supplies to Poland, noting that the information came from the media and he had only heard about it through news reports.
He criticized the notion, calling it theater and dismissing the claims as a show meant to mislead, according to his description.
Regarding shipment levels, the Deputy Prime Minister pointed out that Moscow does not anticipate a drop in exports in December despite the looming oil price ceiling, arguing that deliveries were already tightened in October and November.
He explained that December contracts had been arranged in late October to early November, and therefore no significant changes were expected for December. Contracts continue to be negotiated, he stated.
He also noted that Russia is arranging shipments for January and counting on steady domestic demand for crude amid uncertain market conditions.
Deliveries and penalties
On November 16, the Polish request for oil supplies from Russia was reported by the financial daily Kommersant, based on a Russian source. Poland subsequently confirmed the information, with Orlen, Poland’s leading oil refiner, applying to Transneft to route 3 million tons of Russian oil through the northern Druzhba branch in 2023, according to the report.
The article added that Orlen, which completed its merger with gas company PGNiG in November, could continue buying Russian oil through the northern Druzhba line in 2023. It noted that Orlen had halted spot deliveries since March but maintained long-term contracts with Tatneft (2.4 million tons per year until 2024) and Rosneft (3.6 million tons per year until January-February 2023). Under the Rosneft arrangement, roughly 0.6 million tons could be delivered to Poland within two months, and combined with Tatneft, around 3 million tons are sourced each year. Orlen had already reduced its reliance on Russian oil to about 30% and was importing more from Saudi Arabia, Norway, and other suppliers.
Transneft’s Vice President, Sergey Andronov, later informed Kommersant about Poland’s application but did not specify the volumes or the recipient company. He drew attention to the existence of submissions for transit through Belarus in 2023 by Polish consumers.
Orlen confirmed the transit application to Transneft but clarified that it was a technical notice tied to executing contracts still binding on PKN Orlen. The company emphasized its commitment to sanctions compliance at both national and international levels.
In the summer, the European Union approved an oil embargo on Russia, with an exception for the Druzhba pipeline. The new restrictions took effect on December 5 for crude and on February 5 for refined products.
The oil ‘shutdown’ debate
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki pressed the EU on November 28 to end Russian oil imports promptly, while acknowledging the issue remained under debate. He said that as a leading regulator and organizer of sanctions, Poland favored an immediate shutdown of Russian oil delivery.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg, citing diplomatic sources, reported that EU countries could not settle on a ceiling price for Russian oil. Warsaw reportedly argued that the proposed level was too high, with figures circulating around $62 per barrel while Poland pushed for a much lower target of $30. The Polish government also urged sanctions specifically targeting the northern Druzhba branch to justify terminating existing contracts and avoiding penalties.
On December 2, Poland’s EU ambassador, Andrzej Sados, announced that Warsaw had approved a plan to cap the price of Russian oil at $60 per barrel, according to Reuters.