The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has trimmed its outlook for the euro area, lowering the expected pace of economic expansion in both 2024 and 2025. The OECD now projects eurozone GDP to rise by 0.6% in 2024, down from a prior forecast of 0.9%. Earlier in the year, the projection was reduced from 1.1% to 0.9% in November, signaling a persistent slowdown across the region. Among member economies, inflation remains stubborn in several large markets, with England near 2.8%, France around 2.7%, and Germany near 2.6% at the latest readings. [citation: OECD]
Looking ahead, the OECD also lowered its 2025 growth forecast for the euro area to 1.3% from 1.5% announced in November. The revised outlook mirrors ongoing headwinds that include tighter credit conditions and weaker consumer purchasing power. The organization notes that while tighter financial conditions weigh on near-term activity, a gradual improvement in real household income may support a modest recovery later in the period. [citation: OECD]
In parallel, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued an update at the end of January that suggests a stronger pace for the Russian economy in 2024, with growth revised up to 2.6%. The 2025 trajectory also appears firmer, with a lift from 1.0% to 1.1%. These revisions reflect evolving global demand and financial conditions, as well as policy shifts affecting trade and energy markets. [citation: IMF]
Meanwhile, a broader geopolitical assessment highlighted that the economic influence of the BRICS bloc remains under pressure, underscoring the ongoing shifts in global economic power and the potential implications for trade and investment flows. [citation: IMF]