The recent move by the Moscow Stock Exchange to suspend trading in US dollars and euros has stirred questions about how exchange rates might move in the near term. In comments given to a state publication, Garegin Tosunyan, who leads the Russian Banking Association and holds a doctorate in economics, outlined the broader context and emphasized that currency stability is influenced by a network of factors beyond a single trading venue. He pointed out that while the Moscow exchange plays a role, there are multiple platforms where foreign exchange activity takes place, including over-the-counter systems and other exchanges across the country. The takeaway from Tosunyan is clear: the ruble’s fate is shaped more by the policies and actions of the Central Bank of Russia than by movements on any single exchange, even one with high visibility.
Tosunyan explained that exchanges operate primarily with non-cash transactions, and their impact on the actual cash rate tends to be modest. For most people, what matters more is the cash you hold or can obtain from a bank. He noted that travelers and individuals needing cash should turn to banking institutions, where currency availability and real-time pricing are managed off the trading floor. He added that individual banks set their own exchange rates, guided by their foreign exchange needs and the risks they anticipate in the near term. This means that while market vibes from exchanges can influence sentiment, the daily cash rate you encounter at a bank will reflect broader factors rather than a single platform’s quoted prices.
The exchange revealed that the suspension would affect only certain operations, with US dollars and euros no longer being traded on the platform starting from mid-June. The broader market, including the foreign exchange and precious metals segments, would continue to function, but currency pairs that involve the dollar and the euro face restrictions. This shift underscores a move toward a more constrained and state-influenced currency landscape rather than a fully free-floating market. The goal, from policymakers’ perspective, is to manage risk and preserve financial stability in a time of sanctions and geopolitical tension. Observers both inside and outside Russia are watching how other markets interact with the ruble as new mechanisms take shape in response to external pressure.
Economists have warned that such changes could lead to some erosion of confidence in personal dollar and euro holdings among citizens. The concern is that if cash dollars and euros become harder to obtain through official channels, individuals might see fluctuations in balance sheets held with banks or in cash forms outside the formal banking system. Markets have historically reacted to sanctions and policy shifts with heightened volatility, and analysts in Canada and the United States have noted that real-world effects often appear in the form of increased demand for liquidity, altered savings behavior, and a cautious approach to cross-border transactions. In this context, the role of commercial banks becomes more prominent, acting as the gatekeepers of currency access and the safe channel through which residents and travelers can meet immediate needs while the policy environment continues to evolve.
In practical terms, the situation means that anyone who relies on cash for travel, payments, or daily expenses should stay in close contact with their bank to understand current availability and pricing. Banks can provide the most up-to-date information on whether dollars or euros can be acquired, and under what terms. Customers should be aware that each institution may adjust its rates and inventory in response to overall market conditions and to protect against potential shifts in foreign exchange risk. For people planning international trips or those who frequently move funds across borders, the reality of fluctuating exchange conditions reinforces the importance of checking rates at the point of sale or withdrawal and considering contingency plans such as card-based payments where accepted, or pre-arranged currency purchases that align with anticipated travel timelines.
Overall, the exchange landscape in this period reflects a broader push by authorities to steer currency flows through official channels and to limit speculative activity on certain instruments. While the Moscow Stock Exchange remains a visible platform, the broader system includes other venues and instruments that contribute to price formation in ways that can either dampen or amplify shifts in the ruble’s value. For residents in Canada and the United States who monitor international markets, the development highlights how sanctions and policy responses can reshape currency access, liquidity, and the everyday realities of foreign exchange for private individuals, travelers, and small businesses alike. The net effect is a more complex, layered market where the central bank and commercial banks carry significant responsibility for maintaining stability while consumers adjust to changing conditions.