October saw a notable pullback in newly issued housing loans, slipping by 22 percent from September to a total of 181.9 thousand. This figure comes from data reported by RIA News, citing the Ratings Bureau. The dip marks a three-month low in the monthly series, yet mortgage lending for the month still held above pre-pandemic levels by about one third.
Industry analysts point to the Central Bank’s tighter monetary policy as the main driver behind the slowdown. Beginning on October 27, the key rate was raised to 15 percent per year, a move that typically cools demand for long-term credit such as mortgages and can stretch repayment costs for new borrowers.
The October mortgage lending volume also declined by about 25 percent, reaching roughly 750 billion rubles. A contributing factor was the fall in the average size of a new mortgage, which settled at around 4.1 million rubles. This shift suggests borrowers are opting for smaller loan amounts, possibly reflecting heightened sensitivity to higher interest expenses and stricter affordability criteria.
On the supply side, the total stock of existing mortgage loans in Russia rose by nearly 3 percent in October, nearing 4.8 million and edging closer to the five-million mark. The growing stock indicates a steady accumulation of outstanding loans even as new originations ebb, a pattern that can influence overall market risk and refinancing dynamics in coming quarters.
Looking ahead, the Ministry of Finance has signaled an intention to expand preferential mortgage programs. Such initiatives could aim to support demand by offering more favorable terms to eligible borrowers, an approach often used to stimulate housing activity during periods of monetary tightening.
In related governance developments, discussions in the State Duma have touched on the potential introduction of pre-loan assessments, including psychological testing for borrowers. Proponents contend that such measures could improve lending outcomes by ensuring applicants understand long-term payment commitments, while opponents warn they may add friction to the credit process and reduce access for some groups.
Across major markets, these dynamics echo a broader cycle where central banks recalibrate policy to curb inflation without derailing housing markets. In Canada and the United States, observers watch closely how higher policy rates affect mortgage affordability, loan originations, and refinancing activity, even as local lenders adapt with stricter income verification, down payment requirements, and price controls. Market participants stress that while headline loan counts may retreat during tightening phases, the long-run trajectory often depends on how quickly inflation cools, how wage growth supports consumer confidence, and how effective support programs remain in addressing credit access for first-time buyers.
Analysts emphasize that the October data reflect a temporary pause rather than a structural shift in housing finance. Mortgage markets frequently exhibit cycles tied to policy expectations, household balance sheets, and housing supply constraints. For lenders, the challenge is managing risk while maintaining liquidity and service standards in a gradually tightening environment. For borrowers, it remains essential to assess total costs, including contingencies such as potential rate resets and the impact of any forthcoming policy adjustments on monthly payments.
Cited information comes from official market sources and subsequent analyses prepared for industry stakeholders. (Source: Ratings Bureau data relayed by RIA News.)