In January, the volume of loans issued for real estate purchases involving Russians who were more than 90 days in arrears climbed to 30.4 thousand, marking the highest figure since May 2021. This finding was reported by the Rating Bureau, citing the credit histories bureau’s press service.
Overdue housing loans showed a notable uptick, rising by 9.3% in January 2023. When compared to the same period in 2022, the growth stood at 15.4 percent. The total value of mortgages deemed in default also edged higher, increasing by 11% versus January 2022 and by 12% year over year, reaching 63.1 billion rubles.
The chief executive of the reporting firm, Oleg Lagutkin, attributed the rise in mortgage debt to the expansion of loan volumes overall, suggesting that more borrowers were drawing on credit lines, which in turn elevated the risk exposure within the mortgage portfolio.
In a weekly briefing, the Central Bank of Russia noted that as of July 1, 2022, about 5.2 million Russians carried more than three loans at the same time, a figure that had grown by 5.4% since the start of 2023. This trend highlights the growing diversification of debt across households and the potential strain on personal finances when multiple obligations converge.
Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank, emphasized during the first half of February the ongoing support for debt relief measures, including the continued use of credit holidays for Russians. She also urged borrowers to carefully evaluate the risks associated with increasing their debt burdens as these interventions persist in the broader policy framework. Critics and financial observers alike have pointed to the need for prudent debt management, noting that prolonged periods of easy credit can seed longer-term vulnerabilities in household balance sheets.
Market observers stress that the mortgage market operates within a web of interconnected factors: interest rate dynamics, inflation expectations, housing supply constraints, and shifting consumer confidence. When any one of these elements shifts, it can ripple through loan origination, delinquency rates, and the pool of stressed assets held by banks. Analysts underscore the importance of transparent reporting from credit agencies to track evolving risk profiles and to guide regulatory responses aimed at maintaining financial stability.
From a policy perspective, the persistence of credit holidays can serve as a short-term relief mechanism, but experts warn that a timed and targeted approach is essential to prevent moral hazard and to ensure that households do not become overly dependent on relief measures. The balance between providing support to borrowers and preserving the soundness of the banking system remains a delicate task for authorities.
Ultimately, the trajectory of mortgage defaults and arrears will depend on a combination of macroeconomic conditions, household earnings, and the effectiveness of risk management practices within lenders. Stakeholders—from regulators to lenders and borrowers—will continue to monitor delinquency trends closely, adjusting credit policies and relief programs as needed to maintain financial resilience in the face of evolving economic pressures.