Industry analysis cited by Kommersant and informed by Infoline research indicates that metal framing is poised to capture a meaningful slice of new residential construction in the near term. Projections for 2026 and 2027 suggest that roughly 5–7% of all fresh housing will be framed in metal, with the share advancing to around 20% by 2030. These numbers hint at a shift in construction methods that could reverberate beyond national borders, influencing international markets such as Canada and the United States, where metal framing already plays a role in certain project types.
Under these projections, as many as 3.5 million square meters of residential space could be completed within three years, assuming there are no significant disruptions to the metal-framed sector. Over a seven-year horizon, total output might approach 10 million square meters. The data underscore a potential scale-up in metal-framed housing, signaling longer project horizons while reducing cycle times for developers who embrace this technology. This combination of size and speed could reshape project planning, financing decisions, and risk management for builders operating in markets with tight labor supply and volatile material costs.
Discussion about rising metal consumption in construction gained momentum after a proposal from the Ministry of Construction, with debates continuing since 2022. The ministry did not respond to recent press inquiries, but industry insiders note growing appeal for metal frame systems due to faster construction timelines, tighter project controls, and the prospect of improved coordination on complex builds. As these systems mature, they are increasingly seen as a means to compress timelines without compromising safety or quality, a consideration that matters to developers navigating fluctuating labor markets and supply chain uncertainties.
Manufacturers consulted by the press report broad interest from a wide spectrum of developers, spanning budget-focused projects to high-end developments. They emphasize that metal framing can shorten overall construction cycles, enabling faster delivery and more predictable scheduling—critical advantages in markets that face labor shortages and erratic material pricing. A positive feedback loop appears to be taking shape: rising demand fuels investment in manufacturing capacity, while suppliers push for better engineering and standardization to support larger pipelines of projects, ultimately driving down costs and improving consistency across builds.
Experts generally agree that a sustained rise in metal usage in housing could stimulate the metals sector and allied industries, particularly in contexts where sanctions or geopolitical tensions influence supply chains. If this trend persists, it may spur innovation in metal products, enhanced corrosion protection, and modular construction approaches that appeal to developers seeking efficiency and reliability. While geopolitical factors introduce some uncertainty, the strategic value of metal-framed construction remains clear for stakeholders aiming to diversify building methods and shorten development cycles. Looking ahead, the Ministry of Construction projects roughly 50 million square meters of apartment space to be added within the current year, illustrating the breadth of activity in the housing sector and framing the potential role of metal framing in supporting broader housing delivery and urban development targets. As markets explore this pathway, the focus will lie on practical deployment, resilient supply chains, and the seamless integration of metal framing with existing permitting, safety, and quality standards across regions.