Between August and December 2022, banks in the region issued an average of about 2.1 million cash loans each month. This figure marks a notable rise compared with the same window in 2021, when monthly volumes remained under 2 million. The shift suggests that demand for accessible cash finance remained robust during the latter part of 2022, even as other lending dynamics started to evolve.
Analysts from the Compare study highlight a second clear trend for the latter half of 2022: the average size of new loans declined. This pattern indicates that lenders were more selective about loan amounts, possibly in response to shifting risk assessments or tighter underwriting standards as the year progressed. The combination of strong monthly loan activity and a shrinking average loan size paints a nuanced picture of consumer and business borrowing during that period.
Specifically, the mean loan amount for August through December 2022 stood at 229 thousand rubles. This figure reflects a reduction of about 25 percent compared with the same period in 2021, underscoring a deliberate move by lenders to favor smaller, more affordable credit products or to limit exposure in markets perceived as higher risk. Such a trend can influence borrower behavior, with consumers opting for smaller, more manageable sums and installment terms.
Industry experts anticipate that average loan amounts are unlikely to rise sharply in 2023. The projection mirrors cautious lending practices and a focus on sustainable credit profiles. Banks are expected to prioritize risk mitigation, ensuring that new exposures align with established credit standards and macroeconomic conditions. This stance could keep average loan sizes subdued even as overall loan volumes show variability.
Observers note that banks will likely prioritize lending to customers with proven reliability and repayment capacity. Current annual interest rates for loans span from roughly 12 percent to 32 percent, contingent on borrower creditworthiness and related risk factors. In many cases, consumers report offers clustered around the 20 percent mark, reflecting customary pricing bands tied to risk assessment, loan purpose, and tenor. This pricing landscape helps lenders balance affordability for borrowers with prudent risk management for lenders.
As reported earlier, lending schemes within the framework of preferential mortgages are often distributed through developers. Additionally, starting May 1, 2023, the Central Bank of Russia increased macroprudential premiums for high-risk mortgage loans, with a particular emphasis on mortgages tied to joint construction participation agreements. Such measures aim to bolster financial stability by offsetting elevated risk and by ensuring prudent capital buffers for lenders involved in these programs.
Looking ahead, regulators have signaled ongoing evaluation of policy options, including potential adjustments to surcharges on higher-risk mortgage products during the initial period after home completion. The goal is to maintain a stable mortgage market while preserving access to affordable credit for qualified buyers, all within a framework that supports long-term housing finance sustainability. Experts continue to monitor these moves for potential implications on borrowing costs, loan availability, and overall market confidence (Regulatory updates, central bank communications).