The dialogue about Kazakh oil moving toward Germany through the Druzhba pipeline gained momentum with verbal approval from Russia. Preliminary estimates indicated an initial shipment of 20 thousand tons of crude would begin the process, details reported by Interfax citing statements from Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Bolat Akçulakov.
Minister Akçulakov confirmed that Kazakhstan had awaited an official nod from Russian colleagues to transit through the Russian Federation. The verbal confirmation was noted, and the first batch, amounting to 20 thousand tons, was described as a preparatory, monthly-volume trial intended to test the route and logistics involved in the flow of oil to Europe. These remarks underscore the cautious, stepwise approach Kazakhstan is taking to diversify its export corridors while maintaining robust ties with traditional partners.
During the same communications, the minister outlined a timeline that placed the first shipment to Germany in January 2023. With the Druzhba route activated, Astana aimed to export a total of about 1.5 million tons of crude to Germany within that year. Looking ahead, officials suggested that, depending on market conditions and pipeline capacity, annual volumes could scale up substantially, potentially reaching as much as 7 million tons in the longer term, reflecting Kazakhstan’s strategic push to expand European energy connectivity.
On January 11, Kazakh energy authorities reiterated that the initial 20,000-ton batch would be forwarded via the Druzhba pipeline, highlighting the ongoing preference for this corridor in Kazakh oil export planning. At the same time, authorities had previously signaled that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline would remain a primary export route for Kazakh oil in the current year, indicating a multi-route strategy designed to balance logistics, capacity, and geopolitical considerations while ensuring steady access to European markets.
Industry observers note that the Druzhba agreement marks a notable shift in Kazakhstan’s export architecture, where the country seeks to mix traditional routes with new cross-border channels to Germany. The development follows a broader pattern seen in energy diplomacy across the Eurasian region, where price, reliability, and political signals often shape the selection of one transit path over another. In this context, the verbal confirmation from Moscow—while not a formal concession yet—represents a meaningful signal that could influence project timelines, investment decisions, and the broader trajectory of Kazakh energy exports to Europe.
Analysts emphasize that while the initial shipment size is relatively modest, the strategic implications are significant. Successfully moving 20,000 tons as a first batch could pave the way for a more extensive schedule, contingent on continued cooperation and the alignment of technical, regulatory, and logistical frameworks across the involved sides. This evolution is expected to contribute to Europe’s energy diversification while reinforcing Kazakhstan’s role as a key supplier in the Caspian and Eurasian energy landscape, as described by trade and policy experts in recent assessments. [source: Interfax]