In 2023, a barrel of North Sea Brent crude was valued at 83.1 dollars, a revision from an earlier expectation of 92.36 dollars. This adjustment comes from recent updates released by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration, and it reflects how market expectations shifted in response to evolving supply and demand dynamics. The revision helps Canada and the United States gauge regional energy costs more accurately and plan their energy strategies accordingly.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its 2023 Brent crude forecast by about 10 percent, moving from 92.36 dollars per barrel to 83.1 dollars. Looking ahead, the agency projects Brent to average around 77.57 dollars per barrel in 2024, signaling a softer price environment compared with earlier projections. These figures inform energy budgeting, refinery planning, and policy discussions in North America as the market absorbs global supply considerations and potential demand shifts.
Alongside price forecasts, the EIA also released expectations for U.S. raw material production. It anticipates U.S. output increasing to 12.41 million barrels per day this year, an uptick of roughly 70 thousand barrels daily from prior estimates. The projection for end-2024 U.S. oil production rises further, expected to reach about 12.81 million barrels per day. These production forecasts influence regional energy security assessments and the outlook for domestic markets in both the U.S. and Canada.
Separately, Bloomberg reported on January 10 that Russian Ural crude was trading at about 38 dollars per barrel, approximately half the price of Brent in the North Sea ring. The report noted a narrow group of buyers and highlighted how EU price ceilings, set near 60 dollars per barrel, shape the competitive landscape for crude oil in European markets. This price differential underscores global supply dynamics and the ongoing pressure points affecting pricing corridors in North America and Europe.