Analysts believe the flight ban restricting Russian air traffic to many European destinations will likely stay in place for years, potentially through 2029. This assessment comes from experts at the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation, known as Eurocontrol, who continually monitor airspace use and regional safety protocols.
On February 28, 2022, officials within the European Union decided to completely close the region’s airspace to all aircraft operated by Russian carriers or registered in Russia. The move followed the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and was intended to safeguard air travel as geopolitical tensions intensified across the region. The barrier effectively barred most civil aviation from entering European skies when it came to Russian operators.
Eurocontrol analysts project that the airspace of several CIS countries, including Russia and Ukraine, will remain restricted over the next seven years. This means there is little expectation of normal flight routes resuming between European states and those CIS nations within the near future, and probably not before the end of the forecasting horizon in 2029. The status quo suggests ongoing fragmentation of cross-border air corridors in this period.
Officials emphasize that restrictions in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Moldova are unlikely to ease before 2029. The prevailing outlook from Eurocontrol indicates no immediate return to prior route patterns. This assessment underscores a longer-term realignment of European and CIS aviation corridors, reinforcing the reality that travel and cargo shifts will be necessary to navigate the constrained airspace landscape for years to come.
In late April, reporting from the Kommersant newspaper, grounded in insider sources from government ministries and carriers, indicated developments for the Russian aviation sector. The authorities appeared to be preparing a multi-year plan aimed at revitalizing the industry by 2030. Perspective figures placed the program budget around 627 billion rubles, signaling a substantial push to modernize fleet, infrastructure, and operations even amid ongoing sanctions and restricted international routes.