The global smartphone market is projected to contract in 2023, yet the outlook for 2024 looks more favorable as a recovery takes shape. This perspective comes from a report covered by CNET that cites data from the International Data Corporation, commonly known as IDC. The analysis suggests a year of decline followed by renewed growth as the market stabilizes.
IDC forecasts a downturn by year end, with total shipments slipping by about 3.2 percent to roughly 1.17 billion units. Looking ahead to 2024, the market is expected to rebound with an annual growth rate near 6 percent, signaling a return to expansion after a difficult period. Analysts view this rebound as a sign of renewed consumer demand and the ongoing evolution of device ecosystems in major markets like Canada and the United States.
Commenting on the drivers behind the current dip, Nabila Popal, IDC’s director of research, highlighted that rising global inflation has been a primary headwind. The inflationary environment affects consumer purchasing power and can temporarily dampen demand for new smartphones, especially in price-sensitive segments. The expected stabilization in 2024 is thus linked to easing inflation pressures and the gradual normalization of supply chains that supported recent volatility.
In the same assessment, Ryan Reith, IDC vice president, pointed out that the only segment anticipated to register growth within the near term is foldable smartphones. This niche is expanding not only in numbers but also in capabilities, reflecting ongoing innovation in materials, display technology, and user experience. The growth signals for foldables are seen as indicators of broader technological progress in the smartphone category, including improvements in camera systems, processing power, and battery efficiency that appeal to premium and early-adopter buyers in North America.
The IDC analysis aligns with observed consumer behavior in Canada and the United States, where mid- to high-end devices continue to attract attention in upgrade cycles. While mainstream models often lead monthly shipments, the premium segment shows resilience as customers value enduring performance and device longevity. The trajectory hints at a mixed market dynamic: a temporary softening in overall volumes, paired with growing interest in devices that push the envelope on design and functionality. Such trends influence retailers, carriers, and accessory ecosystems as they prepare for measurably steadier demand in the years ahead.
Additionally, market observers note that supply and demand conditions could vary by region, with North American markets showing relative strength in replacement demand and a preference for carrier-inclusive financing options. Beyond device availability, ecosystem considerations such as mobile services, app experiences, and cloud-based capabilities contribute to the overall value proposition for buyers contemplating new smartphones during the recovery period. Industry participants expect the 2024 rebound to be supported by a combination of improved supply chain stability, innovative form factors, and ongoing investment in 5G infrastructure that broadens the appeal of recent models to a wide base of consumers.
In summary, the IDC forecast paints a cautious but hopeful picture. The decline observed in 2023 appears to be a temporary phase within a larger trend toward modernization and upgraded capabilities. The anticipated 6 percent annual growth in 2024 reflects a market that is reorienting around advanced features, better economics for buyers, and stronger demand signals from key regions. Observers will be watching how foldable devices perform as a leading indicator of where the market is headed next, along with how inflation and supply conditions evolve in the coming quarters. The overarching message is that the global smartphone market is repositioning, with Canada and the United States playing important roles in the rebound as consumers respond to smarter, faster, and more connected devices. Notes from the IDC perspective remain consistent with a broader industry narrative that favors innovation and value in the near to midterm future, as reported by CNET from IDC data.