Global nuclear energy outlook and regional drivers
Global nuclear energy production is projected to grow at roughly three percent each year in the coming period, rising above levels seen before the pandemic. This assessment comes from Finance Times, citing projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The forecast signals a steady rebound in nuclear output as countries invest in reliable, low-carbon electricity options to meet rising demand and climate goals.
Looking ahead to 2024, the IEA expects nuclear energy to hit a historic high near 2,915 TWh, surpassing the record of 2,809 TWh set in 2020. The agency predicts year-over-year gains of about three percent for 2024 and a smaller, yet meaningful, increase of around one and a half percent by 2026. These figures reflect a trend toward greater nuclear contribution as part of broader energy systems transitions.
Several factors are fueling this growth. The commissioning of new reactors in China and India stands out as a key driver, expanding capacity in two of the world’s most populous and rapidly developing energy markets. In France, a return to higher utilization of existing reactors is expected as the country rebuilds capacity after last year’s preventive outages. Alongside the expansion of nuclear, the shift toward low-carbon electricity from renewables continues to reduce the share of fossil fuels in the power mix, reinforcing the role of nuclear in clean energy portfolios.
Japan is witnessing a revival in its nuclear program as it seeks to cut CO2 emissions and bolster energy security after the 2011 Fukushima disaster. The COP28 climate summit underscored broad international intent, with more than twenty countries pledging to triple their nuclear capacity by 2050, highlighting a global shift toward reliable, low-emission energy sources.
Despite these global trends, the balance of new capacity remains uneven. Projections indicate that China and India will together account for more than half of the new nuclear capacity added by 2026. China, in particular, is increasing its influence in this sector, now representing about 16 percent of the world’s nuclear production, up from roughly 5 percent in 2014. This growth underscores the country’s strategic role in shaping the future of nuclear energy and its impact on regional and global energy dynamics.
On the demand side, world gas consumption is projected to rise significantly, with estimates pointing toward about a 26 percent increase by 2050. This shift will influence how gas and nuclear compete and cooperate within electricity systems, affecting fuel mix, investment strategies, and policy decisions across regions.
In Turkey, recent analyses clarify the degree of energy import dependence, a factor that shapes national energy planning and policy choices. Understanding import reliance helps explain the broader context of how countries navigate energy security, price volatility, and supply diversity as they pursue low-carbon ambitions.