Global food prices surge amid Ukraine conflict and market shocks
World food prices have climbed to new highs as the Ukraine crisis disrupts markets for staple grains and vegetable oils. The Food Price Index tracked by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization shows how the cost of widely used food products changes over time.
Introduced in 1990, the index reflects shifts in the world’s price levels for popular food staples. In March, the average index value stood at 159.3 points, marking a 12.6% rise from February and the highest level since the index began. It also exceeded March of last year by 33.6%.
The trend is driven by record increases in grains, vegetable oils, and meat, with sugar and dairy prices also rising sharply. The grain sub-index jumped 17.1% in March from February, driven by higher prices for wheat and other feed grains tied to the conflict in Ukraine. Corn surged 19.1 to a record, while barley and sorghum also edged higher.
Market observers point to the Black Sea crisis as a key catalyst. Military activity in the region has sent ripples through grain and vegetable oil markets. In recent years, Russia and Ukraine have accounted for roughly 30% of world wheat exports and about 20% of corn exports. The FAO notes that world wheat prices rose by about 19.7% within March alone.
Vegetable oils also climbed, rising 23.2% from February, with sunflower oil affected the most since Ukraine is a leading global exporter. Palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils followed suit. The Sugar Price Index increased by about 20% year over year and rose again in March, influenced by higher energy costs and exchange rate movements in major producer countries.
Meat prices advanced by 4.8% in March, reaching a historical high, while dairy prices rose by 2.6%. The overall uptrend in food costs began during the pandemic in 2020 and persisted through much of 2021 with a brief lull in summer. The current rapid escalation started in late February amid Ukraine-related developments.
Impacts on Russia’s domestic prices
Russian statistical data show consumer prices rising by nearly 10% year to date. From late March to early April, notable price moves included chocolate up 2.8%, margarine 2.6%, biscuits 2.4%, chicken meat 2.2%, and black tea 1.9% higher. Sugar averaged a 5.1% increase, while polished rice rose 3.1% and salt 2.5%.
Vegetable prices climbed by about 1.4% on average. Specific goods saw larger shifts: onions up 14.2%, cabbage 13.2%, beets 11.3%, carrots 8.5%, and potatoes 4.8%. Meanwhile, cucumbers fell 7.2%, tomatoes 3.5%, and bananas 2.6% in the same period.
Global hunger considerations
Analysts warn that Ukraine’s crisis could add millions to the number of people facing hunger in the 2022–2023 period, with overall food prices potentially rising further. Regions likely to feel the strongest effects include parts of Asia and the Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa, where price shocks have the greatest impact on vulnerable households.
Top UN officials emphasize the risk: wide-ranging increases in food, energy, and fertilizer costs may aggravate hunger on a global scale. The Secretary-General underscored the urgency of coordinated action to prevent a broader humanitarian crisis.
European leaders have also sounded the alarm. The French president called for an international plan to safeguard food security for the world’s most vulnerable populations and to prevent hunger from escalating further.