Global Economic Risks for 2025: Insights from the Geoeconomics Report
The Roscongress Foundation released this year’s assessment outlining potential “black swan” events that could jolt the world economy. The collection, framed as 2025 Important Events and drawn from the Geoeconomics report with predictions on main risks, was published by RIA Novosti. The document treats black swan events as sudden shocks with outsized effects on markets, trade, and financial stability, reminding readers that surprise moves can disrupt even well-balanced systems.
In economic theory, a black swan is a rare, unpredictable event that triggers far-reaching consequences. The Geoeconomics report identifies trade tensions as a leading risk, detailing a scenario in which a broader tariff war escalates and duties rise across many economies. The result could resemble a trade collapse of historic proportions, reminiscent of downturns seen during major past episodes, though in a modern, tightly interconnected global market.
One of the most predictable risks concerns the United States and its debt trajectory. The authors note that by November 2024 the U.S. national debt had surpassed 36 trillion dollars, equating to roughly 107 thousand dollars per person. This looming burden tightens fiscal space, influencing credit conditions, investment, and consumer sentiment across North America and beyond.
The Geoeconomics analysis also flags policy shifts such as tax cuts proposed by the elected American President as potential accelerators of deficits. The authors argue that such measures could widen the budget gap and push national debt higher, with possible ripple effects on interest rates, funding costs for businesses, and household finances across the United States.
Cyber threats and the vulnerability of digital infrastructure are highlighted as other possible black swans. The report points to undersea internet cables as a critical weakness, noting that the global financial system depends on fast, reliable networks and that approximately 99 percent of intercontinental internet traffic travels through submarine fiber optic cables. Any accidental damage or targeted attack could generate substantial losses, especially given the challenges and delays involved in repairing these networks.
Beyond macroeconomic indicators, the piece touches on sanctions as an ongoing risk vector. Earlier sanctions affecting the ruble have been framed by some observers as black swans in relation to currency stability and broader financial-market responses. This context can impact Canadian and American exporters and investors who rely on stable access to global markets and predictable currency conditions.
The report stresses that a confluence of tariff shocks, debt dynamics, cyber vulnerabilities, and sanction-related fluctuations could interact to amplify downturns. For policymakers and businesses in Canada and the United States, the takeaway is to strengthen resilience—diversifying supply chains, boosting cyber defenses, preserving fiscal flexibility, and maintaining robust infrastructure that supports digital connectivity and efficient trade logistics.
In summary, the Roscongress Foundation, through the Geoeconomics analysis, presents a sober view of risk. It suggests that many of the most daunting scenarios are not random anomalies but plausible outcomes rooted in policy choices and global interdependence. As markets look toward 2025 and beyond, stakeholders should monitor debt trajectories, tariff trends, cyber risks, and the sanctions landscape, weighing their implications for North American economies and regional competitiveness.