Global Economic Outlook for Russia: OECD Forecasts and Domestic Signals
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has revised its outlook for Russia’s GDP growth, signaling a modest improvement from earlier projections. In its latest assessment, Russia is expected to post a GDP expansion of 0.8 percent by the end of 2023, a revision upward from a prior estimate that anticipated a contraction of 1.5 percent. This update appears in the OECD report, which was published on the organization’s official platform.
Looking ahead, the OECD projects Russia’s GDP growth to reach 0.9 percent in 2024. In contrast, the organization forecasts global GDP to rise by 3 percent in 2023 and to grow by 2.7 percent in 2024. These projections situate Russia within a broader global recovery trend, influenced by energy markets, commodity cycles, and policy responses in major economies.
At a meeting focused on the draft federal budget for 2024–2026, President Vladimir Putin remarked that Russia’s GDP has returned to its 2021 level. He described the current phase as a period withstanding unprecedented sanctions pressures and emphasized that the domestic economy has moved past the need for a recovery phase, entering a stabilization and growth trajectory.
In a separate briefing, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that the economic recovery has been more dynamic than expected. He indicated that by year-end the growth rate could exceed 2 percent, updating a prior forecast that had pegged growth around 2.5 percent.
Further projections from Russia’s central bank outline a path toward balanced growth during the current year. The bank’s scenarios suggest GDP growth within a range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent by year-end, with a further range of 0.5 to 1.5 percent anticipated for 2024. For 2025 the projections point to a continuation of growth in the 1 to 2 percent band, while 2026 could align with a mid-range around 1.5 percent. This framework reflects cautious optimism about stabilization after a period of economic strain, and it highlights the central bank’s emphasis on prudent macroeconomic management.
Putin also acknowledged the presence of risks for the Russian economy linked to concessional mortgage programs. While these programs support housing access and consumer activity, they also carry potential macroeconomic implications if conditions shift or policy adjustments are made.