Experts believe that Nigeria’s gas shipments to Europe through the proposed Trans-Sahara gas pipeline will not fully fill the gap created by reduced Russian gas deliveries. This assessment came in an interview with RIA Novosti, where Shoeib Butamine, a strategic advisor to the oil and gas industry and the chief executive of the Algerian consulting firm Ranadrill, outlined the limitations of the project.
He explained that while the Trans-Sahara line could provide a modest supplement to European gas supplies, it cannot compensate for the ongoing shortfall. The European energy market has become highly dependent on Russian gas, and shifting to new sources is proving slower than hoped. The sense in the market is that any real stabilizing effect from the Trans-Sahara pipeline will take time to materialize, if at all, given infrastructure, pricing, and political considerations.
Butamine criticized the European Union for not preserving access to affordable Russian pipeline gas, calling that misstep a historical and strategic error. He noted that Russia currently sells a substantial volume of pipeline gas to Europe at comparatively low prices and that the annual export figure remains well above 150 billion cubic meters. He warned that even if the Trans-Sahara project progresses, it is unlikely to move European prices back toward the era of cheap energy, particularly in the near term. The expert also highlighted that potential capacity increases from Russia could be reached under certain scenarios, including the operation of major gas conduits, but warned that these are subject to geopolitical and commercial realities.
Butamine acknowledged a potential regional benefit from the Trans-Sahara route for Nigeria, Niger, Algeria, and potentially Italy, which could position Italy as a northern European energy hub in the longer run. However, he noted that interest from other European buyers, especially France, might be uneven. He argued that gas pricing is not a one-size-fits-all proposition, and buyers in different markets will weigh costs differently, which could dampen immediate uptake for the pipeline and the associated supply routes. The overarching message is that Europe should not anticipate a return to the prior period of inexpensive energy without significant structural changes in long-term contracts and market design.
Recent developments show that Algeria, Nigeria, and Niger signed a memorandum of understanding on July 29 to resume work on the Trans-Sahara gas pipeline project. The plan envisions a 4,000-kilometer main line carrying Nigerian gas to Algeria, where the gas could be redirected to European markets. In addition to this route, Nigerian gas could reach Europe via the Trans-Mediterranean pipeline, which connects Algeria and Italy, broadening the potential export network. There is also the possibility of transporting gas in liquefied form, expanding options for European importers who require flexible delivery methods. These structural options reflect a broader strategy to diversify energy supply routes and reduce overreliance on a single source or corridor. By expanding the pipeline network into North Africa and the Mediterranean, European buyers may gain greater security of supply, though competition with established routes and price competition remains a significant factor.
Industry observers note that the pace of project execution will depend on regulatory approvals, funding arrangements, and the ability to secure long-term offtake agreements that satisfy European buyers. The Trans-Sahara project sits within a wider European energy security context that includes LNG trade, interconnector capacity, and the evolving role of renewable energy in reducing overall demand pressure. In this environment, the emerging pipelines may contribute to a more diversified supply mix, but they are unlikely to single-handedly restore the pre-crisis pricing and supply conditions seen before the disruption of Russian gas flows. Analysts emphasize the importance of transparent pricing, reliable delivery schedules, and political consensus to maximize any future benefits of the Trans-Sahara corridor. The conversation remains focused on how best to balance reliability, affordability, and sustainability as Europe retools its gas strategy for the coming decade. [Source attribution: RIA Novosti]n