Analysts note that currently no non-friendly countries have begun paying Russia in rubles for gas. This assessment was discussed on the TV channel 360 by economist and political scientist Alexander Dudchak, who outlined how the payment system has operated and whether a shift to ruble-based settlements could emerge in the future.
According to Dudchak, buyers have never settled gas bills in rubles. Transactions have always been conducted in foreign currencies, routed through Gazprombank, after which the proceeds were converted into rubles. This pattern has persisted as a practical workaround that aligns with the existing financial architecture and exchange mechanisms used by both sides in the energy trade.
The analyst pointed out that a genuine shift to ruble payments would require a sequence of steps. If gas importers from Russia were to participate in the foreign exchange markets, purchase rubles, and then use those rubles to pay for gas deliveries, the market would effectively reflect ruble settlements. In Dudchak’s view, such a scenario could serve as a middle ground that satisfies both the Russian suppliers and Western counterparts seeking to preserve current trade flows while exploring monetary diversification. He underscored that this would not be a dramatic upheaval but rather a phased transition that tests the viability of ruble-based settlements without disrupting reliability of supply or financial risk control.
In the same discussion, Dudchak noted that while the present setup functions, a gradual move toward ruble payments becomes plausible only when additional assurances are in place. The emergence of a ruble-based mechanism would likely come after a period of trial arrangements, where both sides observe language and legal frameworks, and where the liquidity of the ruble market meets the needs of large-scale energy purchases. The idea hinges on avoiding abrupt changes that could unsettle energy security or create unintended financial volatility for importers and suppliers alike.
On December 30, a presidential decree in Russia introduced clarifications around payment practices with buyers from hostile countries. The decree permits payments in foreign currency for gas purchases in specific circumstances, marking a formal alignment with how unsettled debts and ongoing deliveries are managed. This step is described as a pragmatic adjustment designed to maintain stable cash flows while negotiations continue over broader monetary settlement options. The decree is viewed as part of a broader strategy to manage the financial dimensions of gas trade with a list of countries deemed unfriendly, balancing political considerations with the practicalities of international energy markets. The measure signals that Russia seeks to preserve reliability in gas supply while keeping options open for potential currency diversification when conditions are favorable and when counterparties demonstrate willingness to engage under revised terms.
In the lead-up to this shift, another decree set out how unfriendly countries should conduct payments for Russian gas. Special accounts were established with Gazprombank to receive payments tied to these nations’ gas imports. This arrangement is intended to create a transparent and traceable process for handling funds, ensuring that all payments are properly recorded and can be monitored as negotiations unfold. Industry observers emphasize that such accounts are not merely bookkeeping tools; they are part of a broader framework intended to reduce settlement risk and to provide a clear audit trail for both Russian exporters and their international clients. The move also reflects the ongoing effort to align energy payments with evolving financial sanctions regimes and currency risk management practices, all while preserving uninterrupted energy delivery to customers who rely on steady gas supplies.