In February 2024, gasoline at Russian gas stations is projected to cost 55–56 rubles per liter, while diesel fuel is expected to run 65–66 rubles per liter. This forecast was conveyed to socialbites.ca by a scholar with credentials in economic science who serves as an associate professor in the Department of Corporate Governance and Innovation at a major Russian university. GV Plekhanov Evgeny Genkin.
Experts emphasize that the lessons from the shortages and price spikes observed in various regions of Russia during September and October 2023 should inform current expectations. Within this context, fuel prices are anticipated to stay within the bounds of the inflation rate. At the start of 2024, two critical factors sit at the forefront: a challenging geopolitical climate and the approaching presidential election cycle. These two forces can push prices in opposite directions, and analysts argue that a balancing act between them will shape the trajectory of fuel costs.
There is a consensus that the government retains considerable leverage to influence fuel pricing through policy tools. Potential measures include adjustments to tax duties, price-support mechanisms, and compensation schemes for oil industry workers. Such instruments could cushion volatility and help stabilize retail prices for consumers across the country.
According to Rosstat, average consumer prices for gasoline in Russia from December 11 to 18, 2023 rose slightly, by 2 kopecks, to 54.52 rubles per liter. The price for gasoline labeled 92 rose by 1 kopeck to 50.15 rubles per liter, while the 95-octane grade averaged 54.75 rubles per liter. The average price for diesel fuel increased by 4 kopecks, reaching 64.37 rubles per liter.
Fuel market observers noted a suggested downward movement in prices at gas stations during November 2023, though they questioned whether similar easing would take place through the winter months. In late September 2023, the government imposed a temporary export ban on gasoline and diesel fuel in response to sharp price increases and shortages in certain regions. The ban was reversed on November 17, restoring export activity while markets assessed the impact on domestic supply and prices.
In the broader picture, the cost of winter diesel on commodity exchanges had previously declined by nearly 6 percent, reflecting shifts in supply chains, refinery production, and international demand. Market watchers continue to monitor how domestic policy choices, global energy trends, and seasonal demand will intersect to shape fuel affordability for households and businesses across Russia and neighboring economies.