Forecast for Russian Labor Demand Across Sectors Through 2030
In Russia, projections indicate a shift in labor demand across several key sectors, with a reduction anticipated in agriculture, finance and insurance activities, real estate, and retail trade by 2023. This assessment comes from the Ministry of Economic Development and is summarized in a recent publication cited by RBC.
According to the ministry, the cumulative decline in required personnel in these regions could reach around 720 thousand workers. The overall projection places the total need for workforce at about 73.1 million people by the year 2030, reflecting broad structural changes in the economy and labor markets as the country adapts to evolving production patterns, international trade conditions, and domestic policy priorities.
Breaking down the sector-specific estimates, the agricultural sector is expected to shed roughly 300 thousand jobs, decreasing from about 4.5 million workers in 2022. The retail trade sector is forecast to see a reduction of around 200 thousand positions, falling from approximately 13.3 million workers. In the financial and insurance activities arena, a decline close to 100 thousand positions is anticipated, with the real estate sector recording a similar figure of about 100 thousand fewer workers, sliding from roughly 1.9 million in 2022. These declines illustrate a gradual reallocation of labor toward other areas of the economy and indicate where hiring efforts may，需要 focus in the coming years.
On the opposite side of the ledger, the ministry expects higher demand in several sectors. Production industries are projected to need more workers to support increased output and modernization efforts. Healthcare and transportation and storage are also set for expansion of staff as demand for medical services grows and logistical networks are scaled to maintain supply chains. Information technology, communications, and related scientific activities are cited as areas with rising personnel needs, reflecting the continued digital transformation and innovation activity across the economy. This broadened demand underscores a shift toward skilled labor and technology-enabled roles in the years ahead.
Industry observers note that the described trends align with other analyses of Russia’s labor market, which point to a gradual migration of talent toward sectors with higher value creation and advanced technologies. Analysts emphasize the importance of training, reskilling, and adequate mobility programs to help workers transition from declining domains to expanding fields. The anticipated shifts also raise questions about regional disparities, the capacity of regional economies to absorb new roles, and the effectiveness of policy measures designed to support workforce adaptation.
Meanwhile, the broader demographic and migration considerations receive continued attention. Earlier discussions from Russian experts highlighted the potential impact of population dynamics on labor supply, with some studies noting that sustaining population levels and ensuring a steady inflow of skilled workers may require targeted immigration or other demographic strategies. These conversations reflect the ongoing effort to balance population trends with long-term employment goals, particularly in industries undergoing rapid change and modernization.
Overall, the forecast paints a picture of a labor market that is gradually reshaping itself. While certain traditional areas will experience contraction, new openings are emerging in production, health care, logistics, and technology centers. Stakeholders across government, business, and educational institutions are encouraged to align training programs, wage policies, and regional development plans with these projections, aiming to smooth transitions for workers and strengthen the country’s competitive standing in a changing global economy.