Oleg Kalmanovich, the chief analyst at Neomarkets and a prominent analyst for Gazeta.ru, projects a 15 to 25 percent decline in several key financial indicators in 2025. The forecast emerges amid a strict monetary policy stance from the Russian central bank, which has tightened lending conditions and created hurdles for borrowers seeking new credit.
The policy backdrop helps explain the softer prospects. In January, only five percent of loan applications were approved, and mortgage lending faced growing delays. Mortgage postponements surged by sixty percent in 2024 compared with 2023, and the total value of delayed mortgage payments surpassed one hundred eight billion rubles. This pattern reflects banks taking a cautious stance, given the higher debt load carried by households and the risk of nonpayment.
According to Kalmanovich, the main driver of rising rejections and delays is the reluctance of banks to accumulate more bad debt and to extend new loans while households carry substantial debt burdens. Credit supply remains constrained, and lenders are wary of easing terms until risks are better understood and the macro environment stabilizes.
Kalmanovich noted that any positive shifts in the credit market will likely appear in the statistics rather than in a rapid turnaround in lending practices. He argues that even if some credit products are adjusted, the overall volume of loans and mortgages is unlikely to rebound quickly, and delays may continue as lenders recalibrate risk assessments.
Data from Fedresur shows that by 2023 a sizable number of Russians were drawn into bankruptcy proceedings. The agency reports that 431,946 individuals and individual entrepreneurs filed for bankruptcy in that period, a rise of 23.6 percent from the previous year. In the same timeframe, 55,652 citizens filed for bankruptcy, a jump of about 250.2 percent year on year. These figures underscore the strain on personal finances and the rising importance of formal debt relief processes in the economy.
Looking ahead to 2025, the overall debt landscape remains tense as households navigate the ongoing burden of debt and potential policy changes. The balance between debt relief measures, credit availability, and the health of banks will shape how quickly the market can stabilize. In this environment, the public should monitor official updates and the evolving regulatory framework as indicators of how households will manage credit, mortgages, and bankruptcy filings in the year ahead.