The projected average price for AI-92 gasoline at Russian fueling stations in March is expected to sit around 50.5 to 51 rubles per liter. In practical terms, that means prices will hold steady at their current level with only a slight uptick, perhaps a half ruble (50 kopecks) more than today. This forecast was shared with socialbites.ca by a candidate of economic sciences who serves as an associate professor in the Department of Finance at the Russian University of Economics for Sustainable Development. The institution is commonly referred to as GV Plekhanov, and the professional cited is Ayaz Aliyev.
Aliyev noted that price movements tend to be influenced by geographic location within the country. In other words, prices rise as you move away from the economic center, with more elevated averages observed in more distant regions such as the Far Eastern Federal District. He estimated that the average price for a liter of diesel fuel will stay in the range of 65 to 67 rubles, while also suggesting a potential small increase equivalent to about 53 kopecks or roughly 2.53 rubles. He added that the government plays an active role in monitoring fuel prices and makes timely decisions to regulate fluctuations as they occur. Specifically, he pointed out that there was a government-level decision to boost diesel sales on the stock exchange, a move intended to stabilize the market and curb abrupt price changes.
According to Aliyev, recent sales volumes experienced a modest rise, approximately 3.5 percent. He described this uptick as a preventive and favorable development, arguing that it should help to cap price increases and reduce volatility in February values. He suggested that while prices may experience minor adjustments going forward, speculative factors could exert a stronger influence on short-term movements. He emphasized that pricing trends had already been outlined at the governmental level, setting the groundwork for the fundamental principles that will guide future price formation. Despite this, Aliyev stressed that diesel sales quotas still require further increases to better support the market and contribute to price stability over time.
Aliyev projected that a 20 to 25 percent escalation in diesel sales on the stock market would deliver meaningful backing to the market, reinforcing price stability within the domestic fuel sector. He also highlighted that the share of fuel costs borne by individual consumers tends to range from about 10 to 15 percent of income. The economist noted that this proportion is likely to rise in tandem with the general inflation rate, leading to periodical adjustments in fuel prices every roughly six months to reflect changing economic conditions and purchasing power.
On March 1, the government imposed a ban on gasoline exports for six months. This temporary restriction was designed to help stabilize domestic supply and prevent shortages within the local market. Despite the broad export constraint on gasoline, authorities indicated that a complete ban on diesel exports was not being contemplated. The situation remains dynamic, with ongoing monitoring of supply, demand, and price levels across the country to ensure that policy responses align with evolving market realities.
Earlier statements from industry observers noted perspectives about shifts in the global diesel market. In particular, Sergey Tereshkin, who leads the Open Oil Market, suggested there might be a rise in demand for diesel on the world stage, a factor that could indirectly influence domestic pricing and stock management strategies in Russia. This broader context underscores how national policy decisions interact with international market forces to shape the prices that motorists confront at the pump, even as local dynamics and regional differences continue to play a significant role in the day-to-day experience of fuel buyers.