In February 2024, Moscow’s new-build market cooled as equity participation agreements slipped roughly 10% from January, according to a report by News drawing on data from Metrium and Rosreestr. The February picture highlights how demand for off-plan housing shifted within the capital over the month.
Across February, about 4.8 thousand agreements were signed for participation in share-building projects. This marked the weakest February in Moscow since 2017 and mirrored a year-on-year decline of about 10% versus February 2023, signaling a pause in demand for new constructions amid tight financing conditions.
Analysts attributed part of the softer interest in new projects to changes in the preferential mortgage program introduced in late 2023. The maximum loan amount was reduced to 6 million rubles, a ceiling many buyers find restrictive in Moscow’s expensive housing market, according to Dmitry Golev, commercial director of Optima Development. The tightening of subsidized lending clearly influenced buyer sentiment and slowed the pace of equity participation deals for off-plan homes.
Another factor was the early-year friction between banks and developers over the terms of subsidized mortgages. Banking tensions created caution among potential buyers and contributed to a slower rhythm of equity participation agreements, even as other market segments faced different pressures.
On the flip side, activity in the completed housing segment showed notable strength. Transactions in the finished housing market rose by about 43% from January, with Moscow recording roughly 10.7 thousand apartment purchase and sale agreements during the month. This shift suggests buyers redirected attention toward ready-to-move-in options as mortgage rates for secondary homes remained high, narrowing the appeal of new-build investments for some buyers.
Ruslan Syrtsov, general director of Metrium, observed that tougher lending terms for new projects, combined with the appeal of possession-ready homes, contributed to the shift between segments. The pattern reflects a broader dynamic in which financing constraints reallocate demand from pre-launch or under-construction units to existing inventory that offers quicker ownership and potentially more predictable closing timelines.
Industry observers emphasize that mortgage market trends in Russia have a meaningful impact on the pace and structure of demand across different property types. The February data illustrate how shifts in subsidized lending programs, interest rates, and bank–developer negotiations influence where buyers allocate their money—whether into new-build equity participation or into the secondary market for completed homes. The evolving policy landscape and the availability of affordable financing continue to shape buyer expectations and market resilience in Moscow’s housing sector.
Looking ahead, market participants anticipate ongoing alignment between policy measures and lending conditions to determine the trajectory of both new-build and finished housing segments. While subsidies and loan caps affect the attractiveness of off-plan deals, the appeal of ready housing remains a critical factor for many buyers as they weigh timeline, cost, and risk in a market where prices stay a central consideration.
Analysts and industry voices have repeatedly noted that mortgage policy changes inform housing-market behavior in Russia, with immediate implications for developers’ project pipelines and buyers’ decision calendars. As the market absorbs these policy shifts, the balance between new construction demand and the appeal of completed units is likely to continue evolving, guided by mortgage availability, pricing realities, and the broader economic context.